Joe’s Weather Blog: Coming out of the cold and into the warmth (THU-4/23)

Weather

Good Thursday to you. Temperatures are cold to start the day, with readings for many in the 20s. I had a pretty good frost out there this morning that is disappearing as I start this blog. Readings in some areas dropped into the low-to-mid 20s, while KCI bottomed out at around 30°.

This should do it for awhile as a reversal in the temperature trends is expected. Today will be about 10° warmer than yesterday and we’re heading closer to, if not above average, over the weekend. Even warmer weather comes next week to start the week with your finger hitting the air conditioner button on Monday I think.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny skies this morning with increasing clouds this afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s.

Tonight: Showers/Drizzle possible after 9 p.m. or so. Nothing too heavy. Lows in the mid 40s.

Tomorrow: Sort of a mixed bag. Rainy at times with some breaks. Temperatures in the 50-55° range.

The weekend: Clearing out on Saturday and highs in the mid 60s. Sunshine Sunday with highs in the 70s.

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Discussion:

The unseasonably cool weather that has been felt in the middle part of the country will start to gradually change over the next few days.

Take a look at the temperature anomalies over the past couple of weeks.

and as we focus into the middle of the country… same idea (different colors).

All that chilly weather is a killer when it comes to severe weather and this April there has been little severe weather in the middle of the country.

Despite the active year in the deep south (with perhaps more coming over the next 48 hours) things in the Plains have been noticeably quiet.

2021 tornado reports

One of the ways to turn this around is to actually get some warmer weather to develop and that will be happening over the next couple of weeks.

Notice the “overall” trend starting Sunday for the following 10 days is somewhat milder compared to average.

While that is the “overall” trend, there will be some additional cool downs. Likely as we head towards Wednesday into Friday morning with the next vigorous system heading into the Plains.

That system this morning is off the Aleutians.

The big swirl off the coast of Alaska will be the change coming Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

You can track this wave by looking at the flow chart and looking for the dip off Alaska and following its progress towards the middle of the country.

The devil is in the details though as far as how it develops in the Plains and the connected severe weather risks with it and how far north those risks get towards us. There are already some changes compared to yesterday, and while subtle, bear watching.

I am expecting some severe weather in the southern Plains (highest chance) and perhaps here in the central Plains as well. Timing all this out and when the storms would effect us locally though remains to be seen.

Yesterday I showed you the extended outlook for severe weather risks for Tuesday. This is the update.

We do know there will be a decently strong wave coming through the Plains. We do know that there will be a sharp dry-line developing in Kansas/Oklahoma and southwards. You can see that by the dew points forecast for 4 p.m. Tuesday.

We should have dew points near 60°, so typical spring humidity in these parts. See that sharp drop off in southwest Kansas and extending into north central Kansas… that is the dry line.

Storms should fire near and east of the dry line later Tuesday and move pretty quickly towards the northeast or north-northeast. How long they take to get here and how strong they’ll be when they get here remains to be seen. I think, based on the data today the bigger severe risks are more on the Kansas side.

Should the storms hold together as the come towards us, higher winds would be the main threats later Tuesday night. The issue with that though is sometimes in those situations you have to be at least alert to the potential of the little spin-ups along the leading edge of the squall line. So while the highest risk (at this point) of severe weather is probably west of here, we’re not out of the woods by any means. Again this will likely change as we get closer since the system we’re tracking is 3400 miles away from Kansas City!

Anyway it’s certainly something to watch.

The feature photo is from Tedd Scofield.

67.2% Waxing Gibbous Moon

That’s it for today…

I may take a blog day off tomorrow… we’ll see.

Joe

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