Joe’s Weather Blog: Enjoy the dry days because rain makes grain (WED-5/12)

Weather

KANSAS CIT, Mo. — It’s a pretty but cool start to our Wednesday. Skies have finally cleared out this morning and there will be quite a bit of sunshine over the next couple of days. That’s the good news… the bad news is that starting Friday and for about a week or so, rain chances will be numerous. Perhaps not every day, but odds are rain chances will be with us quite a bit.

With all that rain comes the potential of heavier rains, and while severe weather isn’t expected into early next week locally, some heavy rain totals are possible.

So let’s enjoy this nice weather!

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and pleasant. Cool though with highs in the mid 60s.

Tonight: Mostly clear and crisp with lows in the lower 40s.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and closer to average with highs approaching 70°.

Friday: Showers are possible. Nothing too heavy overall. Highs will be cooler again, mainly in the mid 60s.

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Discussion:

It’s nice to see the sunshine in the area once again!

Look at this shot from Ben down in the Lee’s Summit area. He gets his drone out every so often and sends in these great shots.

So pretty!

So some nice weather for the next couple of days. I’m going to do some mowing and probably get down a round of weed and feed too I think. After tomorrow, things get a bit dicey when it comes to dryer times locally.

There will be multiple reasons for rain starting Friday, and remember May and June are the two wettest months in the Kansas City area. Mid-May to mid-June then would be the sweet spot for rain, and at least that’s the way things will be starting.

On Friday, a weak and somewhat disorganized wave will be coming through. The better forcing perhaps is more towards northern Missouri on this one and model data sort of shows this. The EURO and the GFS vary on the rain amounts though. I tend to think this may end up on the lower side of guidance and not the upper side. The GFS in particular to me sees to be biased towards heavy rains since the upgrade a couple of months ago.

Here are the two models. Use the slide bar to compare the amounts. This would be rain totals from Friday morning into Saturday morning. Most of the rain should wind down sometime Friday afternoon. I think we’ll see under 1/2 inch or so, perhaps under 1/4 inch on average.

Then on Saturday, a somewhat stronger disturbance (maybe) comes across northern Kansas and moves towards our area. This time there will be more moisture overall available in the lower half of the atmosphere for it to work with. So that should lead to higher rain totals in the region.

Here are the 24-hour totals from Friday evening into Saturday evening.

I think the amount may be heavier with this, perhaps more in the 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inch range.

Then on Sunday, a somewhat stronger disturbance once again comes across Kansas, and again it comes into an atmosphere with a lot of moisture, which means efficient rain production possible with any of the heavier cells.

So let’s add things up from the EURO and the GFS from Friday morning into Monday morning.

Again the GFS 5 inches total I think are way too aggressive. Odds do favor 1.5-3 inches of rain for that time frame based on the current data. Sometimes what happens one day will affect the other day so perhaps there will be some changes to this rough idea.

You get the point though, lots of rain opportunities coming, and that’s just through Monday morning. More chances may be with us into Tuesday as well next week.

Despite all this, the risk of severe weather is low. There just doesn’t appear to be much instability to work with into the weekend and Monday too. There might be a bit on Sunday but that is just to perhaps stir up a few more non-severe thunderstorms.

The southern Plains and Texas may get more active later next week though.

Elsewhere, speaking of severe weather… look what happened in New Orleans last night.

For farmers, probably a lot of this is good news. Although perhaps too much good news is a bad thing, but the range and pasture land is about to get a big old drink of water. And while there was some degrading in the condition of the pastureland in the last week, we’re in pretty good shape, especially on the Missouri side of things.

Only 2 inches of the pasture and range land is rated as poor to very poor. On the Kansas side, it’s 12%. This rain may help that scenario a bit. Note the upper Midwest and the Dakotas. Not good.

Let’s reverse that and show the good to very good conditions.

On the Missouri side: 75%. And on the Kansas side: 54%.

Meanwhile, that terrible drought in the southwest just keeps raging on.

The feature photo today is from Patrick Redding of the pretty sunrise up towards Zona Rosa.

Enjoy the sunshine!

Joe

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