Joe’s Weather Blog: Incoming storms with several days of wind ahead (WED-11/10)

Weather

It’s a mild start to this Wednesday in KC…with temperatures in the mid 50s to start the day. 56° is the low so far today (although that will likely end up lower later tonight at 11:59 PM with the rain moving away). That 56° though is the average high for today!

SE and now south winds and an increase in the dew points have allowed this to happen along with all the clouds. I sort of wonder if we can make it into the upper 60s today if there isn’t a lot of rain out there.

One thing for sure…this will change overnight into tomorrow morning. It will be accompanied by a lot of wind and the winds will be “thing” into the end of the week I think.

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy skies with scattered showers around before 4PM. Then higher rain chances moving in from the KS side towards the northeast. The main line of storms appears to move into the area early this evening. Locally heavy rains are likely with this. Highs today 65-70°

Tonight: Turning windy and colder. Drying out before 12AM then blustery. Lows by daybreak in the upper 30s but the winds will be gusting 20-30 MPH

Tomorrow: Sunny and windy. Highs in the mid 50s. Windy with gusts to 40 MPH possible

Friday: More wind with increasing clouds during the late morning hours. Lows in the 30s with highs only around 40°

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Discussion:

As I mentioned we’ll likely drop below 56° (for a low) before the evening is done and before 12AM…BUT if we don’t…pretty warm in the scheme of things for this date.

3rd warmest on record for a low temperature. Again likely to drop.

The change in the mild flow of air is going to be taking shape over the next 6 hours as a cold front firms up and develops across the Plains.

The temperatures are in red and the dew points are in green. There are some near 60° dew points that may try to sneak up towards the area before the afternoon is done.

Makes me wonder.

IF we break out into some sunshine or thin out the clouds…we may get to near 70°. Incoming front…some instability…maybe there could be a beefy storm or two out there, especially on the KS side towards the State Line area. Storms will be forming in eastern KS later today.

The SPC is sort of watching this area as well. we have marginal risk There will be some instability…there will be some decent wind shear out there too…so perhaps some hail or a stronger wind gust would be possible with this set-up. Marginal but worth watching just in case.

As the front gets closer and moves through the area…storms with locally heavy rains are likely. almost all will receive at least some rain…some may see over 1″ of rain.

Here is the way the HRRR model is handling things. For timing the animation starts at 12PM (18Z). 21Z is 3PM…0Z is 6PM and 3Z is 9PM

Speaking of severe weather…

The front should sweep through and the chillier air (really seasonable air) will rush into the area.

Tomorrow will be a blustery day. Bright sunshine expected and deep blue skies as the atmosphere will be “turned over” with this storm system moving through the area. Winds will be gusting though. Up at around 5,000 feet or so the winds will be cranking at close to 40 MPH…and those strong winds will be transported to the ground. So be ready for that. The winds will be from the west though and that will be a downslope wind…so the air won’t be overly cold initially. Mid 50s should be doable but it will feel chillier.

Then on Friday, we may start with some sunshine but the clouds will come from the north in the morning and temperatures will struggle with this set-up. In addition the strong winds will again be with us in the region. Maybe not 40 mph but still 30 MPH in gusts are possible. With temperatures only near 40°…it will fell much cooler than that.

A hard freeze…perhaps mid 20s is possible on Saturday morning.

We should start to see recovery on Sunday though. The 2nd cold shot may be more diverted towards the NE of the area…so we could see moderation into the 50s on Sunday. 60s are likely by Tuesday and Wednesday as we await the next cold front for the middle of next week.

I’m thinking of doing a blog tomorrow or Friday about some early winter thoughts that are ruminating in the back of my mind.

The feature photo is from William Johnson Autumn Colors
Lake Jacomo-Raccoon Cove
Lee’s Summit, Missouri

Joe

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