Joe’s Weather Blog: It just isn’t our winter for big snows (so far) (MON-1/25)

Weather

Another winter storm is out there, and for most, it’s going to be a non-factor to a large degree. Northern Missouri may get some, but even there it may not be as much as thought yesterday or the day before. Perhaps right towards the Iowa border, there might be 3-6″ or so.

The snow winners (or losers) depending on your perspective might be far north central Kansas and now southeast and east central Nebraska.

Another system will threaten tomorrow night into Wednesday AM. IF there is an accumulation with that, odds favor a dusting to 2″ in the metro with slick roads possible.

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with rain…at some point we should see a mix over to snow this evening. Accumulations likely to be under 1″ or so north and west of I-35 (if that). Windy as well with gusts to 25 mph. Winds will drop off later today.

Tonight: Patches of light snow possible. Accumulations under 1″. Some slick roads possible with refreezing as temperatures drop into the upper 20s.

Tomorrow: Sort of a bit of a lull with clouds. Some light snow possible later in the evening. Highs only in the near 30°.

Wednesday: AM light snow possible. Accumulations from a dusting to 2″ or so. Cold with highs in the upper 20s.

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Discussion:

It’s frustrating for a snow lover, but then again, the way this winter is going, it’s about par for the course really. Although I think if I was in northern Missouri, I might be a bit more frustrated because of the gradual shift northwards of the decent snow bands.

So really aside from some trailing snow chances in Kansas City this evening, and some patches of light snow overnight, just another oh-hum system.

There has been appreciable moisture with the storm though: over 3/4″ so far.

The storm’s core is passing towards the north of the Metro. That is the kiss of death for snow lovers locally. As a matter of fact there is a dry slot that has moved into the area. This cuts the moisture away from the atmosphere aloft and doesn’t allow snowflakes to readily form efficiently. You can see that in the water vapor.

Here is local radar FWIW.

The worst part to some extent is that the surface low track isn’t terrible…but the system is so tilted once above the surface (remember the atmosphere is in 3D really) that the warm air above us tilts so far towards the northwest that it’s just not working out for us for snow production.

The only hope for snow lovers would be a band of snow that may come together tonight and rotate through the region. The issue would be then the temperatures as the air cools down overnight but even then it won’t be overly cold…so we’ll see about the freezing of the moisture in the morning on the roads etc.

The system coming in on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning is sort of a disorganized mess really. It will generate snow, but it won’t really be overly focused in terms of how it comes together. Some bands though may set up and create some dusting to 2″ totals in parts of the area.

Whatever.

After that there should be a nice warm-up for a bit of time with another system possible over the weekend that promises rain and not snow at this point.

After Wednesday, it may be another week before we start to worry about snow once again. Models are hinting at some sort of change in the temperature regime towards the middle or end of next week…from warm to colder.

I’m about 3-4 weeks away from being done with the snow and the snow chances and getting ready to say bring on Spring. I will say though as I was taking my walk before the Chiefs game yesterday…I was thinking to myself I’ve been able to do this a lot this winter…walking that is. There has been so little consequential snows around here that walking miles have been piling up for me which is a good thing in these pandemic times I guess.

The feature photo comes from Art White down in Pleasant Hill.

Joe

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