Joe’s Weather Blog: It’s going to get hotter before a break comes Friday (MON-7/26)

Weather

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The summer continues along in relative average fashion. Don’t let the heat headlines, excessive heat warning, and heat advisory stuff fool you. This is typical summer heat for the area. This past Saturday was a hot day for sure (95°), but yesterday was again around average (90°) and today will follow suit as well.

It will get a bit hotter tomorrow, then the hottest weather will be both Wednesday and Thursday as we race towards 100°. Those will be the two hot days of the week. If there is a day we can hit 100° it will be Thursday. After that though, there should be a front sneaking through the area before the weekend bringing less hot weather and rain chances with it. It’d be a surprise if we don’t get some locally heavy rain with the transition that the models aren’t picking up yet between Friday and next Monday.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and seasonable with highs near 90°.

Tonight: Fair and warm with lows in the lower 70s.

Tomorrow: A few degrees hotter with highs in the lower 90s.

Wednesday: Hotter with highs in the mid-90s.

Thursday: Hottest with highs approaching 100°.

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Discussion:

To tell you the truth, the weather is far more interesting in other parts of the country that here in the Metro these last few days.

There were some nice storms yesterday down south of the area, with 2-plus inches of rain reported in Butler, Missouri, and some heavier rains out towards the west of the area towards eastern and north-central Kansas. We had a lot of clouds around here and that kept temperatures in the 90° range for many, again a rather typical day.

I’ve been frustrated with the “excessive heat warning” that the National Weather Service issued last Thursday for the Friday through Wednesday period. In my opinion, what those days would bring would be typical summer heat. I sort of got the Saturday thing, certainly not last Friday or yesterday or today. I’m glad they dropped it this morning.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s going to be needed (in my opinion at least) on Wednesday and Thursday as the heat index soars to near 110°, it’s going to be muggy and nasty hot. No records, nothing close to record heat, but still pretty nasty so be prepared for that.

There should be a cold front sliding into the heat on Thursday night or perhaps on Friday. This will shove the worst of the heat to the south and west of the area for awhile. Here is the forecast map from the EURO ensembles for Friday evening with the front south and west of the area.

We may still make it to around 90° though, even behind the front on Friday.

Now ahead of the front Thursday, that will be the day of the most extreme heat. The setup actually comes on Wednesday in the northern Plains. Look at the forecast highs up there on Wednesday:

105-110° for actual highs up there.

Then on Thursday, the hottest weather will descend into the central Plains and be focused right into eastern Colorado through Kansas and western Missouri.

Highs on Thursday

I still can’t say for sure we won’t hit 100° on Thursday, but there is still a lot of “greenness” out there and there is that whole KCI thing: Three years and counting without 100°, but if there is a day that would do it, it would be Thursday. On the plus side would be a classic west wind bringing in hotter air from eastern Kansas along the Interstate 70 corridor.

The front coming in after that will knock that down a bit on Friday into the weekend.

Meanwhile, interesting weather in the southwest U.S. related to the monsoon season: First of all, what is the monsoon season? Some good information below in a thread:

Arizona has had a lot of rain (by their standards) this last week and temperatures are cooler as a result of the clouds and the rains.

Meanwhile out in California, it’s raining in Los Angeles, which is unusual even for them.

It will be interesting to see how this affects the drought situation in Arizona, especially in the coming weeks because after a pretty seasonable week, they may get some big rains again heading towards the weekend.

Then there is this:

Then there is this (wait until the end of the video): this was from a landslide in India over the weekend.

The power of landslides are underestimated. The rocks won’t stop coming and when they do, those represent tons of moving energy that just crush everything in their path.

The feature photo comes from @marydonnelli via Twitter from the Lake Viking area.

Joe

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