Good evening…I realize it’s a little late for a blog but since there are requests out there via twitter (@fox4wx) and FB (Joe Lauria FOX 4 Meteorologist) I figured better late than never…the good news for you is this will be a somewhat briefer blog than usual :) . Full write ups coming out tomorrow morning.

Just a reminder…twitter is the better platform for more urgent weather information. FB and their algorithms is not. I can put a warning on FB and you’ll never see it or see it days afterwards…twitter keeps that from happening.

Regardless of that though…I want you to be weather aware tomorrow especially in the later afternoon and overnight into Wednesday AM. Odds heavily favor storms…and maybe some big storms. While the tornadic risk may be farther west of KC proper…out towards central KS into NE and south into parts of OK…there are MANY variables that will play out in the morning that may impact things later in the day or tomorrow night.

Forecast:

Tonight: Storms are possible in parts of the area after 2AM or so. Some severe weather in the form of hail is possible (1-2″ hail is possible)…and perhaps a marginally severe wind gust (58+ MPH). Lows in the 60s

Tuesday: Let’s see how things play out in the morning as a warm front may be near or south of KC. IF it’s south…we’re going to have rain and storms in the area during the 1st part of the day. The rain and storms overnight and to start the day TUE will determine how quickly the front can move north of KC. Fewer storms mean the front will jump north faster and highs may reach 80°. Some model data suggests 85° highs are possible. Should the storms be more persistent along with the low clouds…highs will only be in the 70s. This will have impacts in the instability in the PM locally.

Wednesday: Not out of the woods and in some ways just as concerning for N MO especially. Rain chances in the AM…breaks in the PM with highs 75° with potentially warmer weather IF we get enough sunshine. We’ll need to watch for strong-severe storms especially from KC eastwards in the afternoon

Discussion:

So remember over the weekend how I kept saying that we wouldn’t have severe weather locally because the storms would fade approaching KC? It was my mantra since last Friday. I was a bit surprised that the rain made it to us…but it was a good rain overall. Again just because the Storm Prediction Center shows an area (like our area) in a risk of severe storms…doesn’t mean they’re right all the time. That’s why I made my own graphic on the air and DID NOT just regurgitate the SPC forecast. It was the correct forecast on my part.

Now about the next couple of days…the broad picture is that the area has a chance of severe storms TUE>WED and potentially at some point over the weekend as well. Next week looks quiet for our area. Also make sure your friends and relatives in southern NE through central KS down towards central OK are alert about the potential for TUE especially.

Regarding the tornadic risk locally in the KC region. Right now the odds are NOT favoring that aspect. With that said..again depending on how things play out tomorrow AM…that could change…especially fro tomorrow evening. The AM chances may leave various outflows in the region combined with approaching storms could create low level rotation in the approaching storms. Again odds don’t favor this right now. The odds of the tornadic storms favor areas west of KC.

Typically with the set-up that is forecast to develop tomorrow, storms will fire out towards southern NE and southwards down the I-135 corridor towards Wichita and OK City. Assuming that is the playout later in the afternoon…those storms would then move ENEwards and create large hail and potential tornadoes. As the storms move about 100+ miles away from their point of formation…they typically weaken and all start crowding together. When that occurs the storms are fighting each other for the same instability and changing the environment around them. This typically lowers the tornadic threat but also can increase the high wind threat. This would be a potential issue for us.

That timing would be sometime from 8PM TUE-2AM Wednesday AM. So at this point I feel the wind and potential hail risk (golf ball and smaller) is our main issue locally.

IF I were a chaser I’d be thinking about heading towards Concordia…and chasing what’s referred to the “triple point”. This is sort of the confluence between the surface low…the dry line which separates the Gulf of Mexico moisture and the drier air coming in from the SW and also the warm front which will extend eastwards from the surface low. I’d probably be prepared to be traveling towards southern NE as well.

Here is the current severe weather forecast for Tuesday.

While the word “moderate” is used…and while it may not seem that “big of a deal” in the world of weather “moderate risks” are pretty big deals. Notice that area is focused west of KC.

Another point to be made. I rarely see these set-ups verify correctly from 24 hours out. There ALWAYS seems to be curve balls thrown at us with regards to early storm formation, rotating storms in places not necessarily expected 24 hours out…weird interactions with various atmospheric features and also capping inversions.

The next map is the 500 mb map…or about 18,000 feet up. Can you see the significant wave coming out of the SW?

That wave is pretty far west of KC…it should result in an explosion of storms in the central Plains west of the KC area. As long as we don’t see an explosion of storms towards Topeka down through Emporia…I think the tornadic risk is lower here. IF by chance something happens later rather than earlier closer to home (the storms actually form)…that will be more concerning…again we won’t know about that scenario till lunch or so Tuesday.

Again there are still many questions…and while the risk of severe weather is going up in the KC region…the strength of the storms coming in are still to be determined.

Just be weather aware…it’s not a bad idea to think about your severe weather plans as well. Regardless of what happens, or hopefully doesn’t happen tomorrow night…it’s good practice for another day because there will be more severe weather opportunities down the road.

Joe