Joe’s Weather Blog: More rain chances and possible freezes (WED-4/7)

Weather

Well at least we got something from a rain standpoint. Amounts were mostly under 3/4″ or so. We needed it. With the constant wind and warm days lately, things were drying out. Certainly from a grass standpoint it was needed.

There will be more showers around this morning, but the next decent shot of rain chances come later tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow will be a raw, wet at times day.

The bigger picture for next week is cooler and there may be some light freezes around here too. If you’re a gardener, don’t go to crazy with flowers that are subject to having issues with near 30° temperatures, because we may see a couple of those mornings next week.

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy and mild, temperatures recovering into the 60s before turning cooler into the 50s later this afternoon and this evening. Winds will be switching towards the southwest at 15-plus mph.

Tonight: Showers are possible later this evening. Cooler with lows in the lower 40s.

Tomorrow: Raw and wet at times with highs struggling to 50°.

Friday: Nicer with highs near 70°.

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Discussion:

Well it was better than nothing and we avoided the severe weather situation which I wasn’t too excited with anyway… so that panned out correctly.

Here are some totals through this morning:

Pretty much falling in line with my thoughts. There might be a few heavier areas east of Kansas City.

The rain was welcome by many, and with that comes a temporary end to the really mild weather lately.

This morning our storm, at least at the surface, is stretched out along the State Line and slowly pulling east-northeast.

The cooler air is still west of the region, as you can see by the 8 a.m. temperatures (in red) that are showing 30s and 40s west of the area.

It’s snowing right now in Goodland.

You can see the evolution of the potential rain (mostly) on this animation through tomorrow afternoon via the HRRR:

For timing: 18Z is 1 p.m., 21Z is 4 p.m., 0Z is 7 p.m. and 3Z is 10 p.m.

As the day moves along, especially later this afternoon and tonight, that cooler air will rotate through the region and temperatures will start falling.

From a temperature standpoint, you can see the effects of the storm, and also notice how close the warmer air is to coming back into the area. That will happen on Friday.

Then another system will come through Friday night and early Saturday. That too looks to give us rain as it ushers in briefly cooler weather on Saturday, before we warm up again on Sunday then drop again on Monday.

The longer-term forecast into next week appears chilly. Here is the 8-14 day forecast and you can see the area maximized for colder that average temperatures (probabilities) are smack in the middle part of the country.

That could mean some morning lows near 30° in the region and maybe even the 20s for some at some point later next week.

The EURO and the GFS ensembles show this potential with numerous mornings in the 30s (odds are those numbers might shade a bit too high too).

EURO long range forecast
GFS long range forecast

Our averages are creeping into the mid 60s for highs and mid 40s for lows over the next week or so.

This cooler trend will likely eliminate most severe weather risks in this part of the country for the middle part of the month. Also odds are we’ll be drier than average as well. So what rain we get tomorrow will be needed in the big picture of things.

Finally a couple of tidbits for you…

This was Alaska from the fifth… yikes!

Finally, that I-70 corridor from central Kansas to Columbia, Mo. was a snow barren compared to areas north and south. The northern Plains and upper Midwest are also below average. Really getting concerns about drought impacts up there heading into the summer.

The feature photo comes from @nearctic_band out towards Sugar Lake, Kan. Neat shot of the heavens above.

Thanks for watching the most accurate TV weather team in Kansas City as certified by WeatheRate, an independent verification company.

Joe

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