Joe’s Weather Blog: More significant rains on the way (TUE-3/28)

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Another gray day out there as temperatures will again struggle to the mid 50s this afternoon. The low level moisture is just basically stuck on top of the area today and while there may be some thin spots at times…any sunshine should quickly be replaced by clouds in the area…then the rains come back to the region overnight into Wednesday and for some…event into Thursday as well. It’s going to be a good soaker for many areas, with highest totals more likely, at this point, towards the well towards the NW of the KC metro area.


Forecast:

Today: Mainly cloudy and cool with highs in the 50s. There will be occasional patches of mist out there this morning.

Tonight: Rain comes back into the area Thursday AM…so it appears most, if not all of the evening should be OK. Once the rain comes in on Wednesday it will be an off and on thing. Lows in the 45-50° range

Wednesday: Off and on rain with some locally heavy rains in the morning (some thunder as well?). Temperatures will only be around 53° or so. There will be times that the rain will stop for several hours at a time…or at least be cut down to mist or drizzle.

Thursday: Lingering off and on rain in the area. Not as widespread though. Highs 50-55°


Discussion:

No significant changes are needed to the previous blog update regarding the rain heading this way. Yesterday’s blog covered things rather nicely. Yes there is more rain coming and for some of us that rain may well be in excess of 1-2″ or so for areas NW of the KC metro (for example NE KS and SE NE). For the KC area…right now we’re looking at 1/2″-1 1/2″ type of event I think. Areas further SE of KC may get under 1/2″ or so on average. Decent rain there but not overwhelming. 

This morning…once again…we’re “stuck in the muck”. A light wind regime in the bottom 10,000 feet of the atmosphere is basically not doing the trick in breaking up the low cloud cover in place. The late March sun angle can help us out a bit today but as this highly detailed GOES 16 satellite image shows…the clouds are pretty extensive in the KC area.

Notice out towards the central and western parts of KS…there is more of a “lumpiness” to the clouds there. That tells me there is more “lift” out there and that’s a sign of the next storm that will be in NM today…and gradually moving in to the Plains tomorrow.

Notice, when we look at the water vapor channel which highlights the moisture in the atmosphere better) the broad and rotating storm in NM this morning.

The better “lift” to the air from that storm is showing up as the “lumpiness” to the cloud cover in western KS. Let’s see if there is any rain coming from that activity out there…

As a matter of fact there is…the 9AM surface map…showing the temperatures in RED and the rain as the little dots between the temperature and the dew point (in green). The more dots (up to 4) the heavier the rain. Most common are the 2 dot and 3 dot reports indicating light to moderate rainfall out there. The little red numbers next to the dots are the visibility reports from the airports that are reporting.

This will be a big ticket item hopefully for the ranchland across the western Plains. This information is provided by the NWS in Dodge City.

Even IF the rain totals are half that…it’s a beneficial rain for them.

As for our area…here is a look at the HRRR model (via IA State)…which goes out through 15 hours. It won’t show much this morning…but IF you check back in tonight…it will show the rain coming this way and moving into the area.

Interestingly because of the cool temperatures…our severe weather risk is very low for the next few systems to impact the area…we’re just not going to get unstable enough…or the timing of the rains coming through are more towards the AM hours keeping temperatures in check.

There is another system due in on Sunday…so we’re not done with the rain after this storm is done with us.

As you know this has been blogged about for a couple of weeks now…and it’s nice to see things playing out about as expected.

The severe weather risk today will be down towards TX and OK.

Typically I’d post rain fall forecast maps…but my confidence in the way their portraying the total rains is not very high right now…so let’s go with the rain amounts I mentioned earlier in the blog.

The bulk of the rains will wind down early Thursday but there will still be left over showers around, and certainly clouds, into Thursday and the clouds may linger into Friday and maybe Saturday too. This is not a Chamber of Commerce week in the KC area.

The bottom line is another soaking rain is going to affect the area over the next 36 hours or so…and we’ll take it. Once the next week is done it appears that the parade of storms will end and things will get back to average (or above) around these parts…

That’s it for today…our feature photo comes from Jim T (@jtstardestroyer) via twitter…sort of fitting for today I think.

Joe

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