Joe’s Weather Blog: More weather history and more snow (TUE-2/16)

Weather

A late blog for you as I lost power this morning for about 6 hours or so. The rolling blackouts hit and rolled me over!

The stories for today are obviously what just happened and now more snow on the way. We broke yet another record low today…tanking to -13° officially. That seemed like a pretty good number for many within the 435 beltway. Once outside that though some areas dropped to -22° and some even -23° (Garnett I’m looking at you).

We may not see that type of cold again in our lifetime…it was a once in a generation type morning I think for the widespread-ness of the cold. It’s important to note that I’ve mentioned in the past some 15 to 125 below temperatures but that was mainly confined to areas in northern MO underneath snow. This was a much more widespread event.

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Forecast:

Wednesday: Snow arrives before daybreak. Mainly light for the morning but enough to create some slick conditions and accumulations. Odds favor under 2″ in KC with under 3″ totals likely south of 50 highway towards the Lakes region.

Thursday: Variable clouds and cold with highs near 20°

Friday: Improving with highs near 30°

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Discussion:

So let’s start with the low temperatures and they were impressively cold.

There are some real low readings in there including -22° in St Joe and -23° in Conception, MO.

On the KS side I got a report of -23° in Garnett in Anderson Co…here are some additional ones…the coldest that I could find was Marysville, KS…-26°

Here are some other lows…via the KS Mesonet. Hello Scadia, KS…-30°

Those are numbers that you rarely see.

Something else that I’ve never seen before…so much snow cover in the USA. Check this out…over 73% of the country under snow.

That is something to that extent that I’ve never seen and it’s really because so much of TX and OK is under a blanket of snow.

Phenomenal.

For KC…record lows and record cold highs have been set on Sunday and Monday. Then today a record cold low only of -13°. Previous record was -8°.

In Nebraska, Hastings dropped to -30 ° tying their ALL time record low…and records were everywhere this morning.

Via coolwx.com…showing all the records tied or broken by the appropriate color dots.

Our stretch of highs 15° or less continued today…now up to 10 straight. that hasn’t happened before…and it appears today will be the last day as highs should get closer to 20° Wednesday despite the snow.

We were roughly 0° or below from 4:53PM Sunday through 11:53 AM today…almost 41 straight hours. Impressive for sure for KC.

So why didn’t KCI get colder…there were 15 below temperatures around…but KCI stopped at -13°. My theory is that it’s tougher and tougher for KCI to get that cold again, like the 23 below back in the late 80s. Why? Land use.

My thought is back then…there wasn’t much of anything near KCI…it was barren for miles around it. In other words the infrastructure, and for lack of a better phrase the heat island of the cement/roads/buildings/homes etc has grown so far north towards the airport that perhaps we just can’t get there anymore.

Think I’m kidding? Take a look at how our land use has changed from the mid 80s to 2018.

You an actually see the growth up towards KCI.

At least those are my thoughts and I sort of was thinking about this when I saw some really extreme KC area forecasts for the cold. It’s just tough for us to do that extreme in a city these days.

Onwards.

Snow coming tomorrow early. This is connected to a system coming up from the southwest. Not overly strong and there will be the usual dry air initially to overcome. Again though the atmosphere is cold, not as extreme but still cold for snow standards in the area. This should yield another 15 to 20:1 high ratio fluffy easy to accumulate snow.

So my thoughts are that with the short range models generating about 1/10″ of moisture…that should get us to 1-2″ of snow. Areas south of KC towards Clinton and Sedalia and Pleasanton may see upwards of 3″ or so.

Areas farther north…much less…under 1″ towards the northwest of Leavenworth and St Joe.

Then things start to modify in a more substantial way. 30s return for the weekend and IF things work out…50s for a day or two early next week. The snow that’s out there should disappear quick once we start warming up since there is so little moisture in it.

There might be a small system to watch on Sunday. A brief snow maker it appears. We’ll see IF that tempers a potential warm-up by a day early next week.

Our feature photo comes from Shrewsbury Scott Pam and she mentioned “My hardworking husband and son feeding the cattle this morning . First round of chores”

Another brief blog tomorrow AM I think. Assuming I have power

Joe

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