It really is amazing when thinking about the crummy weather LAST March…that, at least from a temperature standpoint, THIS March is almost 9° colder than last March through St Patrick’s Day. This week overall will be more seasonably…not overly warm but not overly cold either…just sort of “meh” from a temperature regime and “meh” is actually OK compared to recent history at least. The rain though will become an issue at times Tuesday with more coming next weekend.
Rest of today: Mostly sunny and pleasant with highs into the 50s
Tonight: Increasing clouds with lows in the mid 30s
Tomorrow: Occasional showers but not an all day rain. The more concentrated and heavier rain should move in later in the day or in the evening. Highs are sort of tricky…potentially in the mid 50…potentially in the mid 40s. So let’s split it…around 50° or so. Warmer south though. One note…there may be a few ice pellets out there somewhere tomorrow early AM as whatever falls starts…not a big deal overall
Wednesday: Clouds in the AM then some clearing with highs 50-55°
Well the sunshine is welcome…
Temperatures (in RED) as we head towards the noon hour are nearing 50°
East winds in the above map aren’t the greatest for warm afternoons but since the average is around 55° and we have a lot of sunshine…we should be near there during the afternoon…not a bad day to be outside considering the winds are light.
The system to watch tomorrow is actually two-fold…there is a developing wave across southern Canada…
That is dropping southwards..and as it does so it will help create lift in the Plains tomorrow…that will go into the production of mostly rain it appears that will spread towards the east as tomorrow moves along and the NAM model picks this up nicely.
The disturbance will come down right on top of the KC region on Wednesday so the best chance of something a bit more widespread and noteworthy would be later in the day Tuesday into Tuesday night. Typically this type of event…even though it’s strengthening as it drops southwards would give us about 1/4″>1/2″ of moisture but in this season(s) of mostly over-production of the rain events…this has some upside to 3/4″ or so in spots.
The hi-res NAM has sort of the same idea…
Again not an all day rain…some dry hours coming I think…and that will affect the temperature potential and why I mentioned the “tricky” part of the forecast.
Note the variation from the north to the south…very possible depending on track of whatever surface low develops. The HI-res NAM takes it just barely south of the I-70 corridor. IF it’s farther north..warmer…farther south and the cold air north of the Metro will drop southwards too.
Spring starts on Wednesday.
Finally I wanted to show you more information about the ongoing flooding across Nebraska. Some amazing pieces of data coming out…
This picture is high above the Spencer, Nebraska dam today which was compromised on Wednesday. Prayers going out to the towns that had to evacuate downstream of the Niobrara River and to all those affected by the #nebraskaflood. #Flood2019#nebraskaflooding #NEflood pic.twitter.com/LCcvHvupQl
— Northeast Nebraska Telephone Company (@nntcnet) March 15, 2019
— Copernicus EU (@CopernicusEU) March 17, 2019
— Copernicus EU (@CopernicusEU) March 17, 2019
— NEMA (@NEMAtweets) March 17, 2019
Things are so bad even the NWS in Omaha had to evacuate their offices.
You may encounter some broken links on our webpage, but our forecasters remain hard at work forecasting and issuing warnings and products. We've moved operations to Hastings, NE.
— NWS Omaha (@NWSOmaha) March 17, 2019
— 🏳️🌈Joe Zweifel🏳️🌈 (@jzweifel62) March 16, 2019
By the way some of the MO River forecasts upstream of KC have been reduced just a bit…why…a couple of reasons…1) there is less water being released through Gavins Point Dam up towards Yankton, SD…
and in a good news…bad news…situation…some of the levees are breaking…this releases water and reduces the amount of water coming down the River towards NW MO…in effect sort of like punch holes in a bath tub…the water isn’t as channeled anymore and spreads out more. This increases the “widespreadness” of the flooding in Nebraska…but reduces the River heights farther south in time. Crests upstream of KC are likely heading into Thursday.
Still 2nd highest stage on record.
Per MSHP water coming over Nish and High Creek Levees! This will impact Watson!!!Persons in Watson should Evacuate!!!
— Atchison County (@AtchisonCounty) March 18, 2019
3rd highest on record…
2nd highest on record.
and for KCMO…amazingly NOT in the top 65!
Finally…yesterday’s sunset…it was a stunner. This picture is from Owen Taweeruksakul in south JOCO, KS