It sort of seems like the pattern wants to settle in with heat BUT it’s resisting it to some extent. We saw a rather strong cold front come through on Saturday with little fanfare aside from a few showers on the northside mostly. It did provide a significant break though in the heat and the humidity as yesterday was just delightful as will be today.

We started the morning with lows in the upper 50s…57° at KCI (record is 52° in 2004). The coolest morning since 6/9. We’re still running 3° above average for the month though and that won’t change a lot this week either as some hotter air returns towards the middle of the week.

There is yet another front due in on Friday at some point in the day. This may bring some showers or storms into the area before we start the holiday weekend.

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Forecast:

Today and tomorrow: Sunny with highs in the 80s. Lower 80s to day and mid 80s tomorrow. Pleasant overnights by summer humidity standards.

Wednesday: Hotter with highs into the 90s

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Discussion:

One thing that will be noticeable will be the dew points that should be lower for the next couple of days or so…although they will edge back up starting Wednesday and Thursday. So that is something good.

You can see it on the dew point analysis this morning…a lot of 50s for dew points out there.

You can see the Gulf moisture (dew points into the 70s) well suppressed down towards the south and towards the Gulf region. It will mostly stay there for a few days.

The atmosphere as a whole through the Plains has dried out as well…and that too will continue into the middle of the week before the flow aloft flattens some and goes more from the west towards the east. That will allow another bout of monsoonal moisture to ride through the Rockies and into the Plains on Friday.

There should be a front also entering the picture on Friday afternoon…and with the heat returning Wednesday and Thursday…90-95°…likely more instability will be around for the front to work with.

The issue with this future front is how strong is it…and does it develop enough storms to help shove it farther south. That may be the key to at least part of the storm risks for the Holiday weekend. The GFS model is more rainy on Saturday. The EURO has rain issues here for at least 2/3rds of the holiday weekend…not all day…but enough to be an issue at times for sure.

Again IF the front can blast through…this could be somewhat suppressed to the south…but this front may struggle to “blast through” and that could be a problem for at least part of the holiday weekend.

be alert to changes in rain chances as we get closer to the weekend.

Elsewhere in the weather world…the tropics may be brewing up a little something this week. IF something forms it would be Bonnie…and the system with that chance is east of the Windward Islands (see #1) this morning

It’s pretty far south and in and may end up in an area where tropical systems are somewhat rare to occur…

That track towards the northern Coast of South America or towards the Islands of Trinidad/Tobago and the ABC islands including Aruba is unusual.

Trinidad on the lower right and Aruba are farther south than most tropical cyclone tracks…not that it can’t happen…but notice the rarity for the Trinidad/Tobago Islands.

Most tracks are north of the Islands…sparing T & T from the worst of the storms strength.

Here’s Aruba…

Not quite as fool proof BUT that is also 150 years worth of tropical systems…with only a handful passing south of the Island.

I wanted to show you this as well…the number of severe thunderstorm/tornado warnings that have been issued from the NWS in Pleasant Hill. This does NOT mean that there were reports or tornados with all the warnings…but they’ve been busier than the last few years…almost twice as many as last year.

135 of these are severe thunderstorm warnings for 2022.

23 are tornado warnings…

Our feature photo comes from Kimmie via twitter. We had some nice sunsets over the weekend!

Joe