Joe’s Weather Blog: Not nice then nice then not nice then chilly (THU-4/8)

Weather

Gardeners should note the forecast for next week which is overall below average and especially during the nights, as some light freezes are likely in the morning. So as we preach, don’t go too crazy in the garden yet, especially planting flowers that can be nipped in the colder nights.

The rain has been mostly welcome and today will be rainy as well. With cooler air sort of flowing through the region, I’m not expecting much of a temperature change today. We’re starting in the mid-to-upper 40s and we should make it to around 50° today.

What’s interesting is how quickly we bounce up tomorrow. We’ll do the whole thing all over again over the weekend, with a rainy Saturday, then a brighter and warmer Sunday.

Up and down we go!

Download the FOX4KC news apps:  iPhone and Android

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Forecast:

Today: Rainy and chilly with highs near 50°.

Tonight: Clouds gradually thin out. Temperatures drop into the low 40s.

Tomorrow: Nice and milder with highs in the 70s

Saturday: Rain arrives later Friday evening/night and continues into the middle part of the day on Saturday. We may see the rain end sometime in the afternoon with late afternoon recovery in the temperatures. Highs in the upper 50s to near 60° depending on how quickly things recover.

Sunday: Nice again with highs in the 70s.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Discussion:

We’ll start with next week, which again overall looks chilly into next weekend. As I mentioned, gardeners should be aware of this. The nights may see some areas droop into the 20s. Nothing overly unusual, but still chilly.

Now backtracking…

This is an impressive swirl here in the middle part of the country:

A classic look… and moreso when we use the water vapor loop to see the various swirls in the atmosphere.

The core of the upper-level low in north central Missouri this morning.

This core represents a pocket of cold temperatures aloft. Up at around 18,000 feet or so the temperature is around minus 6° or so, whereas surrounding this it’s around zero or so. What will happen today is that this swirl will slowly move towards the east-northeast and farther away from Kansas City.

You can see this by looking at what’s happening at around 18,000 feet or so. See how the upper level low moves away, and notice what’s happening in the central Plains too later tomorrow into tomorrow night.

One moves out and another moves in.

That one that comes into the area tomorrow night into Saturday is also pretty strong. It will be coming into a drier atmosphere though, but the track, if in the winter, would be a mini-snowstorm track. That won’t happen because temperatures will be too warm.

After a beautiful day on Friday, rain should rapidly develop later Friday night with some thunderstorms possible into Saturday morning. Sometimes you can get some small hail from these types of storms since the freezing level will be below 8,000 feet or so. Anyway, it’s not out of the question somewhere in the region.

Then this thing moves away on Saturday afternoon, followed by much nicer weather on Sunday, and then another cold front Sunday night which will see temperatures lower into next week.

The coolness is nothing too crazy and downsloping winds will help to counter the cool air mass with the dry air and expected sunshine. So my suspicion is that the highs on the following graphic might be a bit too cool, but the lows may be a bit too warm with the dry air mass.

We’ll need to watch for clouds though that could be a factor in the lows especially.

Elsewhere…

It could be an active severe weather day in the southern US towards the Gulf Coast tomorrow afternoon/night.

There could be some bigtime hailers in there as well, especially in Texas.

The new drought monitor is out and we’re in good shape here in most of Kansas and Missouri.

It’s really not good in the western U.S., and California is in bad shape This will become more and more of an issue heading into the summer and fall months, and the fire season out there may be a real bad one. This is not pretty.

With the “wet” season ending out there, systems typically start avoiding California in terms of significant rain/snow production. There are exceptions but this is an awful look into a big drought that will get worse and worse over the coming months.

The Deserts region is bad too.

This is affecting many things out there and the reservoirs are just one item that are taking a big hit.

Finally there’s this, one of the season’s first hurricane predictions.

Active again.

Our feature photo comes from Lisa Burlington. Pretty!

Joe


Kansas City Weather News

Popular

Latest

More News