Joe’s Weather Blog: Overall a cool pattern till later in the month (MON-4/12)

Weather

It was a wonderful day yesterday with highs well into the 70s. Not a cloud to be found around the area…today will not be like yesterday.

We’re starting with cooler temperatures thanks to a cold front that pushed through last night. The cooler air arrived on stronger NW winds for a few hours overnight and today we’re starting out with clouds that will conspire with the cooler air to keep temperatures in check for today. It will be a struggle to warm up until later this afternoon.

The week will feature frosty mornings every so often and then some rain on Friday. There will be additional pushes of cooler weather too, including one push next week that needs to be monitored for freeze or hard freeze potential.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy turning partly cloudy later this afternoon. Cooler with highs in the 50s to near 60° but that won’t happen till late this afternoon.

Tonight: Fair skies and chilly with lows in the mid 30s. Frost s possible to likely in the area

Tomorrow: Sunny and cool with highs well into the 50s

Wednesday: A bit cooler with highs in the mid 50s

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Discussion:

As we swing into the middle of the month, our average highs pop into the mid 60s…towards the end of the month we get closer to 70°.

At this point we’re going to see below average highs for quite some time in the area.

Data this morning shows that it might not be till NEXT weekend before we see a day with highs above average.

This long stretch of cool weather is going to occur because of a more or less NW to NNW flow aloft. There will be exceptions to this every so often for a day or two but as we have this somewhat prolonged fetch of cool air masses on the way…we just never really get a chance to warm things up.

One way of seeing why this is is going up to about 18,000 feet or so and seeing the average flow pattern spread out over 5 days. We’ll start this on Friday this week and it will go through the middle of next week.

That flow pattern is pretty much NNW>SSE in the Plains…that’s a cold signal. Notice the “warmer” colors in the western US ad especially up into western Canada and Alaska. That is what is referred to as a ridge. Then the darker and colder blue colors in eastern Canada and the eastern US is a trough. Basically a rather large dip in the jet stream.

So you get an idea of the flow pattern. It’s a chilly one for the Plains on average.

IF this would’ve been the winter…this would be a very cold pattern locally. Now that it’s almost mid-April though…it’s chilly, it’s below average, but the April sun angle will go a long way to moderating the chilliness of the air during the day at least. At night we’re vulnerable to frosts and perhaps in some areas to light freezes.

Towards the last week of the month though…things start to change…notice how the flow pattern starts to go more west to west in the Plains, even a bit SW to NE connected to that little dip in the Rockies.

The effects on temperatures will be felt with these pattern fluxes. This next graphic connects to the 1st graphic…temperatures at around 5,000 feet or so…from Friday through the middle of next week.

That is a cold(!) pattern for mid April…and is the reason for my concern about freeze to hard freezes next week if skies are clear at night.

Then look at this next map..for the 10-15 day period heading towards the end of the month.

Thing start to moderate although we’re still cool. Remember though this is an average over 5 days…so those first couple of days…the 22nd and 23rd may be having an outsized affect on the averages for the following 3 days.

What all of this does do though is continue to reduce to eliminate our severe weather risks in the region…and not too many folks (aside from the chasers) will be complaining about that. I know I won’t be.

All this cool weather talk will also lead to drier weather in the big picture although I’m expecting at least some rain in the area on Friday…and perhaps early Saturday too. Over the next 15 days or so…not a lot of moisture

Which would be the opposite of where we’ve been lately.

As of today…we’re now at the 13th wettest start to April.

It was actually a wetter start a few years ago in 2017

That’s it for today…no blog tomorrow…

Matt via Twitter has the photo of the day…up at KCI.

Joe

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