Joe’s Weather Blog: Overall good with a couple of bumps in the road (FRI-3/26)

Weather

Taking a long weekend and getting some things done around the house. I did want to stop by though and bring you up on the weather situation with another threat of scattered showers/storms overnight.

There may be some rumbles but the activity right now looks to remain scattered for the Metro. Aside from that, things are looking pretty decent through Monday and perhaps Tuesday as well. A seasonably strong cold front will rush into the area at some point on Tuesday and drop temperatures for about 36 hours before a nice warmup starts to kick off April.

Also the deep south is recovering after some rather large and expected tornadoes. Those were some impressive supercells that were being tracked. Damage and sadly at least five deaths have been reported so far.

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Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and pleasant with highs in the lower 60s.

Tonight: Increasing clouds and storms/showers possible later on. Lows in the upper 40s.

Tomorrow and Sunday: Overall OK with partly to mostly sunny conditions. There is a slight risk of some showers, especially southeast of the Metro tomorrow. Highs in the low to mid 60s for the weekend.

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Discussion:

Overall we’re in pretty good shape for the next five to seven days. The potential active weather is overnight tonight and again later Tuesday.

The fog continues to fade away and with periodic clouds today, it should be pretty nice overall especially compared to the last couple of days. Yesterday’s high was only 46° or so. Average is now close to 60°.

The situation for this evening and tonight favors more of northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas for stronger storms, some capable of at least some hail. The SPC has this idea for later on:

And while tornadoes are unlikely in that area, the risk is not zero.

Some hail is the main concern though from any of the storms.

For the Metro, the chance isn’t overly high but we may end up with at least some thunderstorm activity later tonight. It should move out quickly before daybreak.

I won’t be shocked if we get nothing in KC for many though, so don’t count on the rain.

Actually we’re in a position at this point that we could use some dry weather for about a week or so. Now that April is starting (and you can clearly see things are greening up out there) moisture is almost always needed every few days to get things really growing. We’ve had a wet March and are nicely above average for the year thus far though.

April’s start overall will be mild to warm it appears. Take note though that a hard freeze is likely next Thursday morning assuming clear skies. Temperatures may tank to 25° or so. This is also pretty typical for late March and early April.

The 8-14 day forecast shows warmth overall into the first weekend of April.

The dry pattern may re-establish itself.

The severe weather threats after tonight shift back towards the east for the weekend.

Meanwhile the deep south had themselves quite the day yesterday with long-track supercells that were producing tornadoes for quite some time. Evaluations are being made from the tornadoes, but there appears to have been some significant damage in some areas.

The radar itself was getting several close calls with tornadic circulations as the the actual NWS office in the Birmingham area. Folks there were repeatedly in tornado warnings.

So far these are the reports received. The T’s represent reports of tornadoes…and odds are that more will be added to this over the coming days.

Closer view towards Birmingham:

There was one supercell that perhaps caused at least three fatalities that was producing damage for almost 100 straight miles. Some of the damage indicators were textbook on radar.

One cell may have had two tornadoes at the same time next to each other. Tough to be 100% on that based on the trees in the foreground but it’s possible.

Sort of interesting to note that it wasn’t an abundance of thunderstorms causing this. While there were many storms, there were really only about three cells that had the good to bring the worst weather.

Other bad outbreaks down there of the rotating cells were all over the place. This time there were a few but they were sustained and damaging.

You can see the main swaths of rotation.

That area down there is heavily treed. That leads to lots of power outages. And don’t forget the south side of the Atlanta area also had damage.

Back home, no severe weather but the rain has been welcome by the farmers, especially on the Kansas side. The drought situation out there has improved immensely. I have no doubts it will come back towards summer but it’s a good start for the crops at least.

Ben from Lee’s Summit with the great shot of the fog via his drone this morning.

Joe

Kansas City Weather News

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