Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain…rain…and more rain (SUN-5/16)

Weather

It’s a soggy start in the area today…the rain came yesterday early in the morning…then we got a break for the rest of the day as I expected…then the biggest part of the rains this weekend are happening this morning…again as expected. There will be scattered showers this afternoon before the rain redevelops tonight again.

I got an email or two yesterday from people who were mad that they thought I was wrong with the forecast. I understand the frustration BUT anyone who watched me on Thursday or Friday expected the weekend to play out like this. That’s the way it goes I guess.

The risk of rain will continue all week it appears but there will be more scattered rains tomorrow and perhaps Tuesday as well. So there will be drying time to start the week I think.

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Forecast:

Today: Storms wind down early this afternoon with a lull in the rain for a few hours with just scattered showers. Then the storms re-fire tonight into tomorrow early morning. Locally heavy rains are possible. Some minor flooding is possible in the areas that get over 1″ today. Temperatures today could still warm up to 65-70 during the late afternoon

Tonight: Storms likely with locally heavy rain again possible. Lows in the upper 50s

Tomorrow: Variable clouds with some scattered showers possible in the afternoon. Not as much coverage tomorrow though. Highs in the mid 70s

Tuesday: Ditto.

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Discussion:

A dreary start to the day for sure. Thunder/lightning makes good sleeping weather and I slept in this morning.

The radar shows the rain and storms in the region and will gradually push away after lunch or so.

The storms aren’t severe but they’re putting down locally heavy rains for sure. So far some areas have had over 1″ of rain this morning.

Here are some rain totals through 10:30 or so

There are some near 2″ totals in there in parts of JOCO.

More is coming this morning…but there will be a reduction in the rain this afternoon for a few hours it appears.

There is a warm front to the south of the area this morning.

The trigger for the bigger rains though is a strong low level jet stream above the warm front blowing from the south to the north. That is providing the lift necessary to get convection and with an atmosphere that has a lot of moisture in in…big rains.

Take a look at what is happening a few thousand feet up…these are the strong winds that I was referring too.

The moisture in the atmosphere is focused on top of the area as well.

See that 1.4″ contour…that is the precipitable water. That shows the available water in the bottom half of the atmosphere. So the set-up to heavy rain is certainly there and that is why some areas have seen quite a bit of rain this morning.

Tomorrow the set-up is different and we won’t have the strong low level jet stream…so the rains tomorrow, if you even get anything, will be more scattered I think.

Overall though the pattern will be favorable for additional rain and storms in the region off and on for most of the week it appears. We will be in a weak S to SW flow aloft and every so often any wave that comes up from the southern Plains will be able to produce rain and storms.

The moisture in the atmosphere will always be higher than average this week…so it won’t take a lot to get some big downpours. An additional 1-3″ of rain is possible this coming week as well. Some localized flooding is possible in the usual suspect areas.

There are some pretty hefty rain totals being spun out by the model data…especially down in eastern OK and TX. These are forecast totals from Monday morning to Friday morning.

EURO
GFS

and from the NWS.

So the rains will heaviest in the southern US.

Again I don’t think tomorrow we’ll see much rain in the area so we’ll get a chance to dry out after the heavy rains from this morning. There may be some additional activity in the are Tuesday as the low level jet stream ramps back up for awhile in the morning.

I thought this was interesting from my colleagues at the NWS in Pleasant Hill.

I don’t think we make a serious run on anything crazy with the above stats…although if we get rain at KCI tomorrow…it could be a bit more interesting.

Temperatures for the next few days will be dependent on the amount of sunshine we get. Mid 70s are very possible with enough sunshine. Overall this week will be a warmer and more humid week in the area.

I’m not expecting a lot of severe weather locally. There may be a random storm that could produce a strong wind gust but right now nothing organized is likely for awhile.

More tomorrow…

Our feature photo comes from Jackie Harp Sedlock

Joe

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