Joe’s Weather Blog: Snowstorm for some…others look northwards (SUN-1/24)

Weather

For the KC Metro…unless there is a massive change in where the storm goes…odds are it is going to be a rather large swing and mostly miss for snow in KC…especially on the south side. There should be some snow but it appears the best snows…the most significant snows are going to be up towards the IA border region.

For KC we’re just going to be too warm it appears…that means it’s going to be tough to get a lot of snow. There should be a switchover for at least a few hours…but much more than 2″ will be a struggle I think.

There is another system on Wednesday that actually could give us a bit more snow…but it will be more of a nuisance than a large snowstorm.

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with drizzle at times. Chilly with readings in the 40° range

Tonight: Rain develops…steady temperatures in the mid 30s

Tomorrow: Rain changing to a mix…then snow. Temperatures slowly trail down. Snow amounts will range from a dusting to 2″ for most of the KC Metro area. Far northern Platte and Leavenworth may see a bit more. Windy conditions as well adding some bite to the air

Tuesday: A few flurries possible with clouds likely. Highs in the lower 30s

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Discussion:

A rather gloomy day in the Metro today with clouds and drizzle all over the place. It won’t be a terrible afternoon and there should be some breaks in the drizzle. Temperatures though won’t be moving much with a north wind in place.

Our talked about storm is going to be coming into the Plains tomorrow and the best dynamics are going to be too far to the north for the Metro to get much snow out of this it appears. Far northern MO and north-central KS are set up for a big storm with heavy snow. KC just isn’t in the right spot unless things shift about 100 miles south. Possible but becoming more and more unlikely.

This would’ve been a 6-12″ snowstorm for the Metro IF things were farther south…biggest storm in years…but it doesn’t appear to be in the cards for us. The latest warnings for northern MO and elsewhere reflect the likelihood of heaviest snows

Notice that the Metro isn’t included in anything. Maybe that changes tomorrow but a few counties on the south side of the previous winter storm watch have been shifted to an advisory.

The bigger picture gives you a better idea of where the heaviest snows may set up…look for the counties in pink.

As I mentioned this isn’t unusual in a sense…it’s part of the reason why northern MO sees about 6″ more of snow compared to KC…storms like this I guess.

This map sort of gives you a better idea…

Maryville should get a good dump of snow…St Joe is on the dividing line. Heavy snow will trail into SE NE and SW IA which should get the most from this.

Why?

The main reason is most of the upper level features are going to be going too far north to get us in the right spot. This helps to keep the most dynamic lift across far NW MO and NE KS and points north. It also keeps the temperatures above us too warm to support snowflakes from making it to the ground. There may be waves of mix for awhile before we start changing over in earnest near or after lunch at some point.

Heck the new GFS barely gives us anything except for maybe a few flakes on Monday night.

For snowlovers it’s sort of a bitter pill to swallow, in a winter that has given us more than a couple of those pills to swallow.

Will Wednesday be another one? Well we should be colder…that’s a step in the right direction at least. Various features on the fast moving system seem to be coming in a bit farther southwards. So that could give us better snow chances but the atmosphere will have less than 1/2 the available moisture in it compared to tomorrow so I can’t get too revved up about more than a potential 1-3″ system from this.

From there there is going to be a good deal of warm air returning to the Plains towards the weekend…50s may return…and then some. There should be at least some colder air a few days into February. We’ll see how long that can last though in a winter where things don’t seem to last too long regarding the colder weather in the Plains.

OK that’s it for the day. Another update in the morning. The feature photo is from Sheila Jackson out in Lexington, MO.

Joe

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