Joe’s Weather Blog: So I guess I won’t be mowing today (WED-5/19)

Weather

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Well looks like I won’t be doing the one thing I sort of needed to do today, and that was mow. The rain sneaking up the State Line as I type this will likely eliminate that from my agenda unless the grass dries out no later than noon or so.

Off-and-on rain, some locally heavy, will continue today in the area, and tomorrow too. We finally start to sort of get ourselves out of this mess starting Friday with less activity expected and right now the weekend looks predominantly dry in the area. We’ll be uncapped though, so there will be a risk of some isolated activity, but overall it’s looking much drier compared to the next couple of days.

Next week won’t be dry, and there might actually be a bit of severe weather around too. It’s amazing that we’re still waiting for severe weather setups in the region.

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Forecast:

Today: Periods of rain and some thunder. Locally heavy rain is possible at times today with some areas potentially seeing over 1 inch of rain. Highs in the mid-70s or so.

Tonight: Cloudy skies with perhaps some scattered showers around as well. Lows in the mid-to-upper 60s.

Tomorrow: We do it all over again with highs into the 70s.

Friday: Increasing sunshine and muggy. A few showers/storms are still possible. Highs around 80°.

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Discussion:

Not the greatest of starts today… rain in the area.

On the broader view:

All of this is being created by an upper-level storm that is spinning around in the southwest U.S.

As it does so, it’s setting off and creating disturbances in the southern Plains and eastern Texas but because of the flow aloft those disturbances are coming northwards up the State Line region. Sometimes they’re mostly west of here (like last night), and other times they more or less get us like today.

Any one of those disturbances will likely trigger rain for awhile and because the atmosphere is so saturated with moisture… boom you get locally heavy rains even with decently moving speeds. That’s what a juicy atmosphere will do for you. As a matter of fact, about 150% of average is the moisture content of the atmosphere. So yeah, that is moisture that is ready to come down to the ground when properly provoked!

Hence the potential of locally heavy rains at times today and then again tomorrow.

What needs to happen is for something to deflect these northwards moving disturbances and that will happen Friday it appears to some extent.

The system helping to create these disturbances will be weakening and slowly falling apart in Texas over the next couple of days. The developing “ridge” in the eastern U.S. will be moving westwards. That will start to dry out the atmosphere and allow temperatures to warm up as well into the weekend and early next week.

So that’s good for those of us who need to mow the yard! We’ll be sweating when we do, but it’s a step in the right direction.

Hey for as wet as we’ve been, it’s been crazy wet in parts of the southern U.S., from eastern Texas to southern Louisiana.

Look at these rainfall accumulations (use the slider for reference):

There are some near 20-inch totals south of Port Arthur, Texas, and this wasn’t even a tropical system that created all this moisture. Just slow-moving convection.

Looking forward, you can just see the feed of tropical moisture into the Gulf Coastline coming from the Caribbean over the next couple of days.

Flooding concerns will remain high down there as well with any convection that gets going.

Again for us, we hopefully dry out starting to some degree (but not perfectly) on Friday into the weekend.

Next week won’t be dry: there will be more opportunities for storms. There may be some risks for severe weather developing too, especially on the Kansas side and to the northwest of the Metro. There are strong signals for various waves to be coming our way from the southwest and west. Depending on the day to day setups, they may spark off some stronger storms in the Plains region. Something to sort of pay attention too starting Tuesday of next week. Long ways off though and still questionable in terms of how we’re directly affected locally at least.

The feature photo today comes from @PeopleofCowtown.

Joe

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