KANSAS CITY, Mo. — I’ve been a bit frustrated (in my weather head) about the rain chances this weekend. So many great outdoors things happening and as I’ve been saying for the last few days, have a plan B in the back pocket for part of the weekend. But don’t prematurely cancel your outdoor plans for the weekend.

Trying to forecast things that don’t exist is tough, and when you’re then forecasting something that doesn’t exist and THEN making ANOTHER forecast off a forecast of something that doesn’t exist complicates things to no end. And of course it’s timed out for the weekend.

Let’s dive in and see where this will blow up in my face… lol.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies and pleasant with lows near 60 degrees.

Tomorrow: Clouds increase in the morning. Keep an eye on radar and watch what’s happening (if there is anything happening) in central Kansas. If something is going to move through the metro area later in the morning or afternoon it would likely be coming from there. Aside from that variable clouds with highs well into the 70s.

Sunday: There may be later Saturday night rains that would be exiting the area on Sunday morning. Any activity in the afternoon may be rather isolated. Highs near 80 degrees.

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Discussion:

There are lots of ways this whole thing blows up on my thoughts, and many may not get a drop of rain tomorrow. That is issue number one.

This afternoon thunderstorms are forming in the Rockies, and from these storms some sort of disturbance is likely to be generated. That will be the key to our rain chance tomorrow.

The satellite pictures show the clouds developing:

The key is where does this disturbance come together tonight in the eastern part of Colorado? Does it come together in east central or southeast Colorado? Farther south and that could shift the rain chance farther to the south and southwest of the metro, and that is on the table as well for tomorrow.

Whatever does form, it’s going to be coming into an area that is really dry aloft. The bright blue, mostly clear skies and low dew points (40s to lower 50s) ahead of the feature aren’t exactly conducive for the rains progressing eastwards to hold together well through the night. There isn’t great moisture inflow to whatever comes through central Kansas as it progresses eastwards either.

Hence my skepticism about going too crazy with a definitive yes or no regarding rain tomorrow. Then again, it’s early June and there should be some sort of mid-to-upper-level wave(s) coming into the region that could create or sustain some rain. So I don’t want to say it won’t rain with 100% certainty.

I’ve been carrying 60% chances of rain for the last couple of days. I’m sort of tempted to drop that a notch or two, but not much more than that. This is opportunity No. 1.

Another chance comes later tomorrow night into early Sunday. That would be tied to perhaps something coming out of Nebraska I think. There might be somewhat better moisture feeding into this, so at least it might live a bit longer to threaten the region. That is opportunity No. 2.

Then Sunday night into Monday AM, another potential wave may come towards us from northern Kansas or central Nebraska.

That is opportunity No. 3.

Some may miss out on all three, some may get one of them and not the other two. Some could get two out of the three. I doubt many get all three.

With the flow aloft coming from the west or west-northwest, we’re vulnerable to these set ups. This type of regime is likely to persist for most of next week as well and into next weekend. So there will be more forecast headaches on the way I fear.

You can see how the EURO model is handling this hot mess (nd this won’t be correct either) over the coming 7-10 days.

For timing purposes: 12Z is 7 a.m., 18Z is 1 p.m., 0Z is 7 p.m. and 6Z is 1 a.m.

All those chances are tied to these various waves that come toward the region. In most cases, the issues aren’t storms forming on top of us. It’s more keyed on what happens elsewhere and then where do those areas go.

The EURO is the most generous with the moisture, 1-3 inches for many areas. Other models though are sort of less. The GFS has the heavier rains north and south of the region.

Although the ensembles of the GFS aren’t that pessimistic:

And with this type of scenario, ensembles are probably the better bet on this stuff. The same story holds for the Canadian model. Its main model is light on the rain while its ensembles and like the GFS ensembles.

The bottom line is that there is a lot of variability and that is one of the tough aspects of what may or may not happen over the next 10 days.

This continues though:

Although I do think it may get warmer and very sticky around here towards mid month.

It will be interesting to see if we can get some 80-degree dew points with all the moisture that is going to be out there and in the soil that needs to be baked out.

Meanwhile, Florida is getting dumped on (at least southern Florida is).

Here is radar from Miami:

The system that was Agatha in the Pacific may or may not become Alex, there is a lot of shear ripping on the structure of the potential storm:

It’s that red X that we’re watching…

Miami through early this afternoon has had 1.5 inches of rain so far… more coming.

The feature photo comes from Daniel Williams.

Joe