Joe’s Weather Blog: Spring storms (TUE-4/27)

Weather

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Happy Tuesday… Another windy and warm day is coming towards the area with gusts to 40 mph possible. Clouds will filter out the sunshine though for most of the day.

Today is also a big weather anniversary as 10 years ago today the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham, Alabama area was hit by deadly tornadoes, several of many that formed that day. More on that in the discussion.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable high clouds and windy. Highs in the low-to-mid 80s.

Tonight: Rain chances increase overnight into Wednesday. Lows in the low-to-mid 60s.

Tomorrow: Off-and-on rain with dry intervals. Highs in the lower 70s.

Thursday: Turning mostly sunny and very nice with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

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Discussion:

Today is actually a very interesting weather history day going back 10 years.

On this date…

This was actually a multi-day outbreak that was well forecasted on the 26th…

and then on the 27th…

Even on the 28th there were tornadoes along the eastern Carolinas.

So many videos. There may be bad language on some of these…

Back to Kansas City: So far we’ve been fortunate when it comes to an active spring season locally. Odds are that will continue tomorrow although storms are in the forecast. There is still a chance of a few stronger storms but that will depend on the instability aspect of things, and that is very questionable right now.

We should see several waves of rain starting later tonight. Most of the rain will be tomorrow at various times. Amounts may end up in the 1/4″ to 1″ range with potentially some heavier amounts farther south of the Metro. There is some discrepancy in the precise locations of the heaviest rain axis.

Here is the hi-res NAM with most of the highest totals towards the Lakes region and south of US 50:

The lower res NAM has this idea:

Sort of the same idea but the axis is farther north.

The latest GFS has this idea:

My feeling is that the heaviest axis is going to be farther south of the Kansas City area.

At this point it appears instability will be lacking to a great degree locally. Temperatures may get stuck in the 60s, but if we can get a lot warmer (let’s say mid-to-upper 70s) then that could indicate more instability potential and perhaps some stronger storms somewhere out there. There is some data that suggests this potential.

Beyond this though, things look really nice starting Thursday into the weekend.

The feature photo today is from the full “pink” moon last night via Glenn Hemberger.

Joe

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