Joe’s Weather Blog: Storms And a Chill

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Well yesterday’s activity was really nothing to write home about around the KC area…some places did well for rainfall but those were to the N/NW/W/SW of the KC area for the most part. We’ll try again over the weekend as early as Saturday afternoon.

Forecast:

Tonight: Perfect with clear skies and light winds. Overnight lows should drop into the 50s.

Tomorrow: Increasing clouds and milder temperatures. Highs should reach near 80° with increasing south winds of 15-25 MPH. There is a chance of storms later in the afternoon (6PM-on). The activity should be scattered in nature but increase in coverage later in the evening into the overnight hours hopefully after the race at KS Speedway.

Sunday: Scattered AM storms move away around daybreak. We should see clearing skies allowing temperatures to pop to near or even above 80° with enough sunshine. The bulk of the day looks dry but be weather aware on Sunday night for the potential of some sort of squall line to move through the area…after 7PM.

Discussion:

Apparently I’ll have something to blog about over the weekend as it’s going to be interesting to see how this all plays out. We saw a cold front move through the area last night. It’s effects on the KC area with regards to rainfall wasn’t that great in the end. The moisture has temporarily been shoved to the south of here but will quickly return northwards tomorrow as dewpoints will be on the increase in the afternoon. Here is a map showing the 1PM dewpoints…click on the image below to make it larger and you can see some juicier surface air in SE MO and E OK through the eastern part of TX.

Capture

As the moisture starts to return northwards, I’ll be watching what’s happening aloft as a series of upper level disturbances will be impacting the Plains states with the main wave now off the coast of WA slated to move through the region later Monday into early Tuesday.

As the main storm off the west coast starts getting closer to the region…winds at about 5000′ will increase substantially Saturday evening into early Sunday. We’re talking some 60-70 MPH winds up there that will be howling through the Plains. Here is the forecast winds, in knots, that the NAM is coming up with for early Sunday morning.

 

Notice how the core of the strongest winds are poking up into and through the area. This will help to enhance lift and with the returning surface moisture..should generate convection. There is still an issue though of where this convection develops. Odds favor the initial larger area of convection developing west or northwest/north of the KC area Saturday night through about 10AM Sunday. I can’t however rule out some scattered activity in the region later tomorrow afternoon into Sunday morning as well. The instability will certainly support the potential…whether or not there is a trigger for it though after 3PM remains a question for the KC area. The trigger for later SAT night is the low level jet increasing dramatically.

Then as the air aloft warms up (the cap builds in) we should see everything move away from the KC area during the day/afternoon on Sunday.

From there it get’s a bit more dicey. we should warm up on Sunday…70s and maybe depending on sunshine 80s. We’ll be watching a strong for May cold front edging into the area later Sunday and slowly (!) moving through Sunday night. This means some sort of squall line should move through as well with the potential of severe weather again. Odds again favor hail/wind by the time the storms get into the KC region Sunday evening/night. Here is the forecast map for 7PM Sunday.

sfc

There is going to be some cold air behind the storm that will move in Monday…so the potential is there for Monday to be a raw chilly day with rain at times. The other aspect to watch is the potential for some significant rainfall. The atmosphere will be loaded with moisture on Sunday into Monday morning. We look at this potential by using the precipitable water (PW) which gives us an good idea how juicy the atmosphere is. Look at the following map because the flow of said moisture is right up the I-35 corridor later Sunday night into Monday AM.

pw

So as thunderstorms become heavy rain producers and with a front in the area…AND with the flow aloft from the SW to the NE, the push to the cold front will weaken. This means the potential for training storms (storms going over the same terrain repeatedly) and the potential of some flooding. So we may transition from a severe weather scenario to a potential flooding scenario depending on how things play out.

So now let’s try and put this all together because there are different scenarios at play here. This will be subject to change.

On Saturday we should be fine through at least the middle of the afternoon. From 4PM onwards there may be some scattered storms in the area. Should those storms actually form the potential of severe weather will certainly be there (large hail to wind threat as the evening goes on). This will need to be watched because of the big race and I cannot promise rain-free conditions for the race at this point.

The SPC has bulls-eyed this area (I-70 corridor around the KC vicinity) with the potential of severe weather later tomorrow.

 

Tough to say how widespread the coverage of the storms will be…but be aware of the potential and bring the rain gear just in case…we’ll update you again about that potential tomorrow.

Then Sunday (daytime hours mostly) we should be in decent shape in terms of dry weather before whatever develops out west moves into the region later Sunday evening. That is another window for severe weather in the region with wind and some hail possible with the storms. We could see a transition to a flooding scenario in places later Sunday night into Monday AM.

We may be looking at a lot of 60-65° type weather next week and there is the potential for colder weather on Monday depending on how the rain plays out during the day. As a matter of fact the NAM model has us in the 40s later Monday afternoon! I’m still not sold on that but I can see why the model is doing that dramatic temperature forecast.

Our model data also supports the potential for 1-4″ rainfall with all the storms in the area through Monday. Let’s see how things are looking tomorrow afternoon before we totally jump on that bandwagon…but the atmosphere will be VERY juicy as I’ve mentioned already.

Needless to say the blog will be busy this weekend.

Joe

 

 

 

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