Joe’s Weather Blog: Sum…sum…summertime

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Good morning…pretty start to the day in the region with temperatures dropping into the 60-65° range earlier today…but now warming in the bright sunshine. You may once again notice some haze to the blue skies today…a result of Canadian wildfires that continue to put smoke into the atmosphere…which then drifts through our skies thanks to the flow of winds above us. I did an explainer on this on the air last night and in the blog yesterday if you want to learn more.

Forecast:

Today: Sunny and warm with highs 85-90°. Smokey skies are possible again this afternoon. Look at the smoke showing up in the atmosphere here.

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the mid 60s

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and hot with highs near 90°.

Discussion:

For a neat look at the smoke moving in from Canada through the northern Plains and into the Midwest…check out his satellite loop! The fuzzier area from the MN/ND border north and southwards is the smoke that is located between 5,000 and about 18,000 feet per pilot reports. Be alert for another vivid sunset tonight…

 

Quiet weather is expected through tomorrow evening in the KC area…then things will be changing as various disturbances come down in the NW flow aloft. I’ve written quite a bit about this phenomena over the past couple of weeks as the pattern has temporarily rearranged itself.

The morning data shows a large anticyclone across the western part of the country. This is a heat generator, especially in the summer months…and yesterday record heat was common in the NW part of the country. Boise, ID was one of many cities in ID that had record highs…

 

In the map above via NEXLAB…you can see the big ridge out west…then the corresponding dip across the eastern part of the country. It was a chilly raw day in the New England area yesterday with a cool wind coming in off the ocean.

Even this morning…temperatures from the MS River eastwards are mostly below average…notice the upper left side panel showing the temperatures in relation to average…via Penn State. You can also see the building warm day across the western part of the country.

 

The Plains region is caught in the NW flow…we’re between the heat out west and the coolness back east. Our average highs are between 85-90° or so…and that seems like it’s going to be a good target range for the next 5+ days. Downtown KC which is where Mike forecasts for…will obviously be a few degrees higher.

Now onto the developing rain chances…with us in the NW flow regime…we’re on guard for various little waves that will drop through the Plains and near the KC area…where exactly they go, since the don’t exist at this point are the tricky aspects of the forecast. The location of these subtle features will be the key to the rain chances and the timing of said rains on WED>THU.

One way to try and track these disturbances…the ones that exist and don’t exist is by looking for the tiny vorticity maxes that will be traveling through the Plains region from the NNW to the SSE.. Let’s use the NAM model as we go up to about 20,000 feet or so…look for the red blotches…

 

For timing purposes…12Z is 7AM…18Z is 1PM…00Z is 7PM and 6Z is 1AM.

The closer the darker red blotches get to the KC area…the stronger the disturbances that are moving closer to us. The charts above though indicates we’re on the SW side of many of these disturbances with the better fous being towards the NE and E of the KC area. So things are still somewhat unfocused for us. There are indications of a somewhat stronger wave coming closer to the KC area early WED AM and then potentially later THU evening. It should be noted the the models always have issues with these types of disturbances and typically are too slow with their movement in my opinion.

With this flow sort of maintaining itself into the holiday weekend…we’ll have to watch things carefully because of the potential rain chances associated with the lift caused by these subtle features.

I don’t think it’s going to rain every day from WED>MON of next week…2-3 days in there…sure…but not every day.

Have a great Monday!

Joe

 

 

 

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