Joe’s Weather Blog: Too much heat…too much rain (TUE-6/21)

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Good morning…while the bulk of the KC metro didn’t see the rain, especially on the KS side…parts of the Metro and especially areas just east and north of KC got nailed yesterday evening and overnight with torrential rains…over 5″ in areas…enough to cause flooding. I have a pretty interesting radar estimate map to show you in the discussion part. The bottom line though is that many didn’t get a drop of moisture and while I’m encouraged that we’ll see more widespread rains on Friday…there will be a lot of heat to endure between now and then.

Forecast:

Today: Mainly cloudy skies this morning as the thunderstorms continue to the northeast of KC. A lot of blow off, in the form of clouds, will be filtering out the sunshine…so we get a reprieve from that for awhile. During the afternoon skies should be mostly sunny though. we’ll again heat up…probably between 90–95°.

Tonight: Fair and warm with lows in the 70s

Wednesday: The current spell of heat may max out. I’m still thinking 100° is doable at KCI. Certainly 100-105° is possible for NW MO and parts of NE KS. Areas towards the south of KC may be more in the 95-100° territory. It will be more windy that it has been though with SW winds of 15-25 MPH. Also the dew points may come down as we mix out the air. So the heat index may not be as extreme as it could be with the heat in place.

Discussion:

Over the weekend I made some special maps focusing the better rain chances towards the north and northeast of KC proper…and wow did Mother Nature crank out the rainfall up there. While there was some hail (mostly less than 1″) in isolated areas…the big thing was the rain that fell. Take a look at some doppler estimates showing how much as fallen and this is just through 8AM this morning…it’s still raining up there.

EAX_0
Doppler estimates through 8AM Tuesday

Here is a look at the current radar…

This active weather will shift towards the NE and really impact the Great Lakes and parts of the OH Valley tomorrow with the potential of big storms and all sorts of severe weather. Could be a rough day from Chicago ESEwards.

We will be baking in the heat on Wednesday. I still see no big reason to alter my forecast thinking for Wednesday and the potential of 100° weather for the first time since September of 2013. IF it actually happens remember who alerted you first to this a couple of days ago.

Despite the fact that a “cold” front will be entering the area and taking the max heat away from KC tomorrow evening…the risk of storms looks minor with the front. There will be a cap in place that may be too much to overcome despite the near 100° (or higher for some) temperatures. I guess something isolated could pop…but at this point nothing too widespread is expected.

Thursday will still be hot…maybe not to the extreme though as Wednesday. Probably closer to 95° or so for highs.

I’m increasingly hopeful, as I mentioned on the newscasts yesterday about some more widespread chances of rain moving into the area on Friday. Should that evolve…temperatures would be markedly cooler. I’m going with 85-90°…but conceivably IF we get rains during the day…highs may not even gt to 80°. It would be welcome for sure.

Yes KCI did gt some rain yesterday evening…just shy of 1/3rd of an inch…but we’re still about 3″ below average for June. There were places through that had considerably more rain…even on the northside…

Capture
Northside rain totals via Stormwatch.com. Parts of Gladstone towards the 291 corridor had over 1″ of rain!

Meanwhile the national hot spot on Monday was death valley with a toasty 126°. Others saw record highs…here is a glimpse from Las Vegas.

Blythe, CA hit 124°…apparently setting an ALL-TIME record high. There were some places out there that saw June monthly temperature records fall in the heat.

Phoenix hit 116° breaking their daily record…this morning they didn’t drop below 90° it appears. On Monday their low was 90° as well. That is the earliest in June that their low temperature didn’t drop below 90°…It may not be as scorching out there today…but still hot regardless.

OK that’s it for today…have a great Tuesday and I’ll see you again tonight at 5/6/9/10

Joe

 

 

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