Joe’s Weather Blog: Warmth…rain and some snow…oh and more cold (TUE-1/12)

Weather

Another bright sunny day is expected with a few high clouds every so often. We’re in a downslope pattern for the next two days allowing temperatures to warm up even more than usual. This is also the coldest week of the year in Kansas City. From January 9-16, we bottom out. So we’re in the middle of that now…but here we are enjoying temperatures 15-20° above average for the next two days.

The advertised cold front comes through on Thursday and sends temperatures back down. There may be some rain showers and perhaps even a couple of areas of mix developing on Thursday. It’s a race to see how fast the drier air arrives with the colder air. Temperatures will be chillier (not terrible) but the winds will be going pretty good it appears.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and mild with highs in the lower to mid-50s

Tonight: Fair and not too cold with lows near 30°

Tomorrow: Milder with clouds and sunshine. Highs between 55-60°

Thursday: Blustery with some light rain or mix showers. Temperatures dropping to near 40°

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Discussion:

So for the “bottoming out” on average of winter…this isn’t so bad. Last night though I said that this wouldn’t be the coldest week of winter. I think that’s coming down the road. The last week of January looks to be a cold one I think, which was referred to yesterday. The setup for that remains so I do think there is much more of winter to come.

As a matter of fact over the last 30 winters…I’ve highlighted 13 that gave us 10 inches or more of snow from the 15th onwards.

Could this winter follow through? Here’s something also sort of interesting…showing which month in the last 30 years on average has been our snowiest. We sort of straddle the January/February area.

What’s fascinating about this is that there has been a change in this data from 1990-2020 (above) to 1980-2010 below.

It seems weird that we are where we are, but we’re not alone. Cities like Chicago, Grand Rapids, Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, and others are all in a weird “snow” drought. At least so far they are. Even cities in a few areas in the northern Plains are not exactly going crazy with snow. Bismarck, N.D. and Pierre, S.D. are also lacking for snow.

St. Louis hasn’t even had 1″ yet. Bismarck, N.D. is 16″ below average for snow through today. Grand Rapids, Mich. is almost 30″ below average. The lake effect hasn’t done (yet) what it usually does. That may be changing down the road, before the end of the month.

Take a look at the snow totals (approximate) so far this snow season…going back to the fall.

For us, we’ll enjoy the warmth for two more days. A cold front comes in first thing on Thursday and that will send us back to seasonable mid-January weather. There should be another decent warmup next week though as we sort of go back and forth through all this, awaiting the potential colder weather for the end of the month.

The snow shower risk on Friday is still there, especially from the Metro northwards. There may be some dusting to 1″ wind-blown areas of snow in parts of the region on Friday (another pretty windy day I think) plus with the colder air in place…it will feel like January.

Another tidbit, I’ve publicly been writing and saying that I was concerned about drought tendencies this year, even into the summer months. It will be interesting to see IF the last week of December and the first few days of January were a sign of better moisture or just a blip in a drought overall scenario. I worry about the latter part to that and a model came out today that did pretty well last spring with the forecast rainfall for the summer.

That central U.S. dryness…that is interesting to see modeled. Second summer La Niñas can do this.

Our feature photo today comes from Vicki Anderson Dolt…pretty shot from last week!

Joe

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