Joe’s Weather Blog: What A Night + A Stormy Night (WED-10/1)

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Welcome to October! Guess what…we’re still playing baseball in KC! What an amazing night…I was so worked up after the game that I didn’t get to bed till about 3AM. Up early this morning listening to all the coverage out there and reading my twitter timeline (@fox4wx) with all the various stats etc about last night’s truly bizarre…frustrating…exhilarating…depressing…heart-stopping…and finally winning game…it was amazing. I’ll never forget that experience in the stands for as long as I live…never seen anything like that before…

Forecast:

Rest of today: It appears that this is one of those iffy days and one that will change about every few hours…as I write this early this morning there are more showers to the W/SW of KC heading this way…it won’t rain all day…but will be some more drops in the area in before lunch-time. Then we may dry out for awhile this afternoon. Highs should be near 80°.

Tonight: We should see thunderstorms developing overnight. Some may be locally strong to severe with the potential of severe-warned winds being generated and also severe-warned hail (quarter-sized or larger). More on this in the discussion. Locally heavy rainfall is likely in places. Lows in the 60s.

Tomorrow: A cold front will move through the region…this too will spark off additional rain in the area. after the overnight storms…not sure how unstable we’ll be overall. The front will be slow moving in the PM so I think we can get back well into the 70s (depends on the amount of morning rainfall that persists). A second cold front moves in by daybreak FRI…this will deliver a chilly airmass into the area.

Discussion:

The day isn’t even 9 hours old as of this writing and already St Joseph, MO has set a daily rainfall record of almost 2″. That’s impressive. There were some big storms with lots of rain north of Downtown KC. KCI, so far has had 1.17″ of rain this morning. Here is a look at the doppler rain totals thus far…this product will auto-update until they reset the accumulated rain data.

 

As far as what’s out there right now…here is a loop from the NWS in Pleasant Hill…

 

OK now that we have some of our bases covered…the hard part begins…

There are a LOT of variables that are going to play out for the rest of the next 36 hours or so…one of the more impressive ones to me…is what’s going on just above the surface at the 5,000′ level around 1AM or so tomorrow morning…click on the below map to make it more readable…

ScreenHunter_01 Oct. 01 08.56

The map above shows s decent+ low level jetstream of 40-50 kts…45-55 MPH pointing right into the KC area…as the winds at this level increase overnight…the air parcels will start to rise as the instability increases. This will promote rapid storm development and with a very juicy atmosphere in play from KC eastwards…the odds increase for locally heavy rainfall. The map below shows the Precipitable Water that’s available in the atmosphere…the higher the water content…typically the heavier the rainfall. We’re approaching 2″ through the atmospheric column…which is significant.

nam_pwat_mslp_mc_9

Another thing that is important to consider is that farther aloft…up around 25,000′ the winds aloft will be “fanning out”.  We call this divergence. This means that the air will be rising even more…and should help promote more robust updrafts to the future storms also enhancing the chances of heavy rainfall.

Now the question is exactly where does this all set-up near the KC area…is it on top of us? Off to the east of here? We’ll watch radar later this evening for that. I will also post for you the HRRR model run that will be updated every few hours…showing what it thinks will happen over the next 15 hours or so.

The secondary cold front will be the one that ushers in the chilly air…and there is increasingly the potential of freezing conditions developing near the IA border and frosty conditions developing near the KC area (there is still a question of whether or not the winds will drop off [and they may not]). Temperatures in the KC area may drop into the 30s (35-40°). Again the winds may prevent us from getting a lot of frost.

Overall though a great weekend is on tap…after a chilly FRI with highs 55-60°…we should recover a bit on SAT (60-65°) then warm-up on SUN (around 70°) and at this point the weather looks wonderful for GAME 3 of the ALDS (but cooler than last night)!

So let’s try and wrap this up…better than average confidence of more significant rainfall in the area…somewhat less confidence that it directly targets the KC area but I would be surprised if the areas that missed out last night…don’t get at least 1″ of rain out of all this with all areas having the potential of getting 1-3″ of additional rainfall.

So-so confidence about severe weather. I’m still questioning the instability in the afternoon hours for “traditional” PM severe storms in the KC area…however the low level jet will help the cause tonight.

HIGH confidence of more rain tomorrow…HIGH  confidence of colder weather FRI into SAT.

HIGH confidence of a dry weekend.

That’s about it…time for a nap.

Joe

 

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