Today will be the 14th day with average temperatures running at least 10° above average since December 1. That’s not bad after about 51 winter days…almost 1 in 4 days this winter have been at least 10° above average.
The winds today will also be cranking away…gusts to 35 mph are likely in the area. That will stir up the atmosphere tremendously today. Normally I’d say it could get warmer but the air above us isn’t going to be as warm this time through compared to previous warmups this winter so I didn’t want to get carried away with over forecasting the warmer weather today.
Seasonable air returns at the end of the week into the weekend. Then we wait and see how the next storm on Sunday affects the region. Rain is the most likely outcome from it with a questionable turnover to snow in KC on Monday.
Today: Mostly sunny and windy. Gusts to 35 mph. Highs near 55°.
Tonight: Lighter winds with lows near 30°.
Tomorrow: Actually a better overall day with light winds and mild weather. Highs near 55°.
Friday: Chiller with clouds and sunshine. Highs well into the 30s to near 40°.
So we’ll enjoy more mild weather for a couple of days.
The weekend system will arrive with clouds on Saturday and the chance of rain on Sunday. Model data though is still sort of mixed when it comes to 1) how much rain will fall, 2) the timing of the rain, 3) it’s impacts on the game, and 4) the temperatures.
As far as No. 4 goes, odds are we’re looking at temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Now for the first three.
The main part of the upper-level system is going to be back towards the southwest U.S. on Sunday…so basically we’re dealing with just broad lift moving into the Plains with southwest flow aloft. Some embedded waves will be connected to the fast-moving flow above us. So this isn’t a case of us tracking some big storm in the atmosphere (at least for Sunday).
High pressure will come in on Friday and bring seasonable air and drier air into the region that will need to saturate through Saturday as clouds aloft start to increase. It is not out of the question to see a wintery mix develop somewhere north of I-70 Saturday evening or night. Odds are it would be light but it’s something to watch for especially in Northeast Kansas and Northwest Missouri.
Then on Sunday with the broad southwest flow above us…moisture will increase more rapidly and at least some rain is expected to fall. As the upper-level storm comes out of the southwest later Sunday night into Monday an area of low pressure will move into the southern Plains and create more rain with perhaps some embedded thunderstorms in Oklahoma and Arkansas. This low will move through Northern Oklahoma and into Southwest Missouri.
The track of the low itself is actually somewhat favorable for snow locally BUT there is an issue. The air above us is forecast to be too warm for snow on Sunday and into Monday AM by a substantial amount. So that means we’re looking at a mostly rain type event.
There are some issues however with how much rain falls on Sunday itself, obviously having impacts on the game situation. I do think it will rain on Sunday at some point…odds certainly favor the first part of the day I think right now. There may be lulls during the afternoon however. That remains to be seen.
Now as far as Monday goes. Model data has wintry weather but vary tremendously on where and how much. That is VERY low confidence at this point. The GFS model has very little moisture around on Sunday but also is the most bullish on Monday with potential snow/mix happening. The EURO has the best chance of accumulating snow across northern Missouri but a number of its ensemble members have at least some snow around here on Monday. So if anything, perhaps the snow risk is just a bit higher on Monday compared to yesterday.
I’m going to forgo the maps at this point for a couple of days… until things resolve themselves a bit more.
Next week may be a more wintry week. We’ll see about Monday…then there could be something on Wednesday and perhaps something again later in the week so a faster flow aloft and a series of storms coming out of the western U.S. and Pacific region will allow the west to get some needed moisture and in time bring that moisture across the Rockies into the Plains. So at least there will be threats developing into early February.
The model data is showing these threats by increasing the precipitation potential in the area. Some of this could be snow, but the moisture is what’s being picked up on over the next two weeks or so.
That’s 1-2″ worth of moisture over the next 15 days or so…
How about a pretty sunrise shot today from @TwistedSkiesWx to start the day.