Joe’s Weather World: A change in the wind and weather (THU-11/19)

Weather

Reminder…Winter Forecast is coming out Monday and Tuesday next week. The actual numbers which is what most care about are Monday and then my extensive(!) thoughts on the winter will be in the blog on Tuesday.

Windy…windy…windy. Yesterday the gusts were approaching 50 MPH…overnight they were going pretty good at almost 40 mph. All that wind and mild weather. The overnight and morning low was 60°. IF we remain at or above 60° tonight through 12AM…it will be our 3rd warmest low temperature for today’s date.

The record high today is 77° set back in 1942…we’re going to be within shouting distance of that. 75° is a pretty good forecast for today but there were record highs out in western KS and there might be a few more today.

Tomorrow though will be different as a cold front comes through the area overnight. This will shift the winds towards the north and allow more seasonable air to come southwards. That sets the stage for a chillier weekend…with temperatures closer to average.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and warm with highs in the mid 70s. Windy with gusts to 45 MPH. By later today the winds may lose “some” of their higher gustiness.

Tonight: Fair and mild. Lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: Gradually cooler. It’s possible we have a 12AM high in the lower 60s. during the day temperatures may be more in the 50s>60° with clouds increasing and perhaps a few light patches of drizzle out there with higher chances of some PM showers south of US 50 towards the Lakes area.

Saturday: Cloudy with increasing PM rain chances. We may go up a few degrees by lunch but then drop into a chilly 40-45° range in the afternoon with rain

Sunday: Gradual clearing and cold with highs closer to 50°

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Discussion:

Well we stopped short of 70° yesterday which was a bummer for me because I really thought we could exceed the potential a bit. We didn’t…but today we will as highs will pop. It will be one of the warmer days for this date (the 19th) in KC weather history going back to the 1880s. Here is a look at the warmest November 19ths in the record book.

The strong south winds will bring up moisture later today with dew points getting closer to 50°. This moisture will get up into the Metro but not much farther north. So the front that’s coming into the area tomorrow morning will run into this shallow moisture.

That should create a low cloud deck in the morning for a few hours. The front itself is still way up in the Dakotas though and those low clouds may take a bit of time to form and may not have staying power tomorrow as much as what would be typical. So we may somewhat salvage tomorrow and while it will be cooler it won’t be as windy as the past couple of days.

Then comes the weekend and our best chance of rain. This is mostly likely Saturday, especially towards afternoon and night. Again though…a running theme of the fall…we aren’t going to get the best rain from this. That appears to be farther south of the Metro towards southern MO and the Lakes region.

Rain amounts locally seem more in the 1/10″>1/2″ range for the KC area with perhaps closer to 1″ rains down towards the south of the Metro. Here is the NAM model.

and the EURO idea…a bit more aggressive.

but the overall trend is south of KC and that is something we’ve seen quite a bit of for months now.

With the front to the south…and disturbances coming from the west to the east…there should be some rain…and with the pressing colder air oozing southwards…that will be a chilly rain too.

Another perhaps(?) more significant system will come our way on Tuesday. That has the potential of being a nice rain-maker. We’ll need to watch that a bit more because there might be some dynamics at play with that and perhaps some thunderstorms are possible as well. Not sure if we’ll have instability to work with…but perhaps there will be some across southern KS and MO to create some stronger fast moving storms.

The tropics are somewhat settled right now. Are we done? Maybe…then again maybe not.

Oh and yesterday was the end of seeing the sun in Barrow, AK. Barrow actually changed it’s name a couple of years ago…but I can’t pronounce the Eskimo name for it so I’ll keep calling it Barrow for now!

They won’t see the sun till January 23rd!

To be fair though they do get some twilight which on a day where the clouds are not too present allows them to actually do some things outside without artificial light I understand. Still though 2 months of no real sunshine. Flip to that is that they also get a couple of months with no darkness as well in the summer!

Our feature photo comes from Donald Pollard in Lawson, MO

Joe

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