Joe’s Weather World: A couple of winter forecasts and a not nice Sunday (THU-10/15)

Weather

Well it’s going to be a cooler day today…as the temperature roller coaster is on the downhill glide right now. With the winds today it will feel some 25° cooler than the mid 80s from yesterday afternoon. The winds have been rather present lately, although they will drop off tonight and tomorrow before increasing again tomorrow night into Saturday.

The wind direction will be dictating the air mass regime in the area for the next several days…N/NW winds mean cooler air…SW winds will increase the temperatures. There aren’t a lot of SW winds in the forecast except for Saturday.

The rain situation isn’t that great but there may be some light activity in the area on Sunday. There may be some opportunities though next week with a wavering front in the region.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds this morning then turning mostly sunny and cooler. Highs near 60°

Tonight: Clear and crisp. Some patchy frost is possible especially in the northern part of MO. Lows near 35°

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and pleasant. Highs in the lower 60s

Saturday: Windy and warmer with highs in the low>mid 70s

Sunday: Much cooler with temperatures in the 40s and it will feel colder with the wind. There may be some rain in the area as well but it doesn’t look too significant.

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Discussion:

So it’s dry out there. We haven’t had a drop of measurable moisture this month…and really for the last month+.

The latest drought report shows an expanding area of abnormally dry conditions across parts of far western MO and the entire state of KS.

On the KS side…



The entire state is under some sort of category.

So obviously moisture is needed. There still aren’t any BIG storms showing up but the progress of a weekend cold front may start some sort of process of getting some rain for at least parts of the region.

Today though is being dictated by the colder air that started flowing into the area last night. There was some decent wind overnight to help push the cooler air into the area. The 8AM surface map this morning shows this cooler air (really though it’s seasonable air…that has pushed into the region.

The temperatures are in RED. So yeah…colder for sure but nothing too crazy.

Ahead of the front yesterday we warmed up…into the mid 80s. Yesterday was the 7th day this month with highs at least 80° in KC. The average for October is 5. We’re running about 4.4° above average this month…and today’s high will go down as 63° because that’s where we were at 12am this morning…so we have a midnight high…and we may have another midnight high on Sunday as well as the colder air flows south behind another cold front that has a bit more of a bit too it.

This cooler air mass…will start to move away tomorrow…and tomorrow night the winds will be increasing from the south and southwest…so here comes the warmer air again. A lot of wind is expected for most of the day on Saturday. Gusts to over 30 MPH are possible once again. This should allow a nice warm-up to happen.

Then the stronger front later Saturday night moves through…and it appears the colder air solutions are the correct way to go as the front will be pushing through southern MO then stalling. The EURO model has been the slowest with this change although it grabbed on to it yesterday and I really think at this point Sunday will feature lots of clouds as the day moves along…some light rain/drizzle perhaps and significantly cooler weather. About 30° of temperature change and you add in the wind and it will fell almost 40° colder on Sunday compared to Saturday.

So down and up and down we go. Next week will be a work in progress…I do think there will be rain next week…how much…too early to say.

I mentioned in the title a couple of winter forecasts…this one is from the European model…

Not too encouraging for snow lovers.

How did this model do last year? Here was the forecast…

and the reality…

Not terrible overall and not terrible for us…again this is from last year and is a 3 month forecast for DEC>FEB…so NOV and MAR aren’t included…heck we had 1.3″ in October last year!

Then there’s this forecast…the most accurate of all!

About right…

Finally the folks out west have been enduring a ton of heat and a lack of moisture. Phoenix yesterday hit 100+ for the 144th time this year…a record and more days of 100+ are coming.

In Colorado there’s this…

That’s the Cameron Peak fire…up to 165,000 acres…biggest in state history. Yesterday west of Ft Collins it spread rapidly because of the strong winds…

Odds are less than 1″ of moisture is heading their way over the next 2 weeks or so…not too encouraging out there.

Our feature photo comes from Shrewsbury Scott Pam

Joe

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