Joe’s Weather World: A few speedbumps and some rain (WED-10/16)


Happy Wednesday with lots of clouds out there this morning and a real fall feel to the air out there with temperatures this morning in the mid 40s…these clouds may tend to hang around for a bit this today so it could be a real struggle to warm up this afternoon. We’e had some real nice weather these last few days…so I guess we were do for this.

The pattern coming up is more or less rather typical for the this time of the year…a series of ups and downs over the next few days to week or so…overall a little rain…some storms…and some nice fall days with temperatures that may outperform the model data which is typical of late October and this month winds down.

By the way…after a warm September…October is running a bit more than 2° below average so far…

  • Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy an chilly through early afternoon then hopefully more PM breaks…highs in the 50-55° range

Tonight: Fair skies and chilly with lows in the mid 30s

Tomorrow: Nice…a bit breezy with highs in the mid>upper 60s

Friday: Windy and warmer with highs near 75°

  • Discussion:

I’m not really seeing anything remarkable in terms of weather in the Plains over the next 10 days or so…at least locally. Temperatures will go up then down a bit…which is typical of the fall around these parts.

There will be a couple of frontal passages…one later Friday into Saturday AM…another…more substantial one later in the weekend…those will be the rain chances it appears with some threat of thunderstorms…especially Sunday evening and overnight.

The rain chances early Saturday will be a quick hitter…not a lot expected and Saturday overall looks pretty good.

The front after that one though will have a bit more of a punch to it. The strongest part of the upper level storm will be developing farther north of the KC area…and the best moisture return will be more towards I-44…so that places KC in a weird no mans zone…some rain…some thunder but less of a severe weather risk (at this point).

The SPC has highlighted the area to the south of the KC Metro with at least a risk of severe storms…this would be for Sunday…late day>night.

It’s 5 days away…so it’s something to monitor…and I can see how things could slow down a bit and bring that risk a bit farther north to finish the weekend.

A pretty decent quick hitting cold shot coming next Monday behind that front…stronger than the one a couple of days earlier.

Hopefully for farmers…a continued catch-up on harvesting will happen…

We’re starting to see at least some fall colors out there…nothing overly dramatic on a widespread scale but some pops every so often in the trees…here is the science behind the cold changes…

Of note elsewhere is the potential of some tropical development towards the Gulf Of Mexico over the weekend…

So far…13 named storms this year…5 hurricanes.

OK…that’s about it for today…I’ll be back on the shows tonight…see you then.

Our feature photo comes from Bobbi Burkett from a few days ago…

“This morning’s sunrise over the prison walls at the site of the old United States Disciplinary Barracks at Ft. Leavenworth”

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