Joe’s Weather World: A front means another swing in temperatures (WED-11/18)

Weather

I more or less finished writing up my winter weather forecast last night. It’s lengthy for sure and as I’ve said probably wrong in 7 different ways but it’s my annual stab at this effort. As I was doing it though I thought to myself “I’m not even sure how Friday and the weekend is going to go” let alone this coming winter…but it is a fun exercise and my thoughts will be elaborated on on Tuesday the 24th in a lengthy weather blog.

The entire team’s forecast will be done on Monday though…through various shows starting with Michelle’s during the 4AM news…Karli will chip in, as will Alex and Garry on the Noon shows. I’ll pull up the rear at 5 and 9 and will have the team average as well.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and windy. Gusts may approach 45+ MPH. Highs in the lower 70s

Tonight: Fair and windy. Gusts near 30 MPH at times and mild. Lows in the mid 50s

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and windy although the winds may fade a bit in the afternoon. Warm with highs in the mid 70s

Friday: Becoming cloudy with drizzle or light rain developing from KC southwards. Highs in the upper 50s or so.

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Discussion:

Another one of those next couple of days where we get to enjoy more warm weather by November standards. There will be cooler weather coming soon. A front early Friday morning will change the milder weather and usher in cooler temperatures. This will create a colder weekend…Saturday looks pretty crummy from a temperature standpoint and Sunday may not be pleasant either.

I’ll be interested in seeing how warm we get today…we’ve had 7 days this month with highs in the 70s…the average is 3. The record is 11 set back in 1990. I don’t think we get there though. Maybe we can tack on another 2 or so.

We need the rain though and hopefully at least we get something out of this although how the whole thing plays out remains to be seen really. I think a 1/4″ is likely at the very least.

November is typically pretty dry around here. We average about 4/10ths of an inch per week or so. We’re already about 7/10″ below average for the month and what we can pick up would be a good thing.

The winds for the next couple of days won’t be helpful really. This morning…a couple of thousand feet above us the winds are roaring at close to 65 MPH! As the day goes along the sunshine will help to warm things up and with the winds above us “weakening” to about 45+ MPH…the strong winds at the surface will also increase. As I type this KCI is starting to get gusts of 30-35 MPH. I won’t be shocked if some have gusts over 45 MPH as the day moves along and the gusty winds will continue tonight as well.

Tomorrow afternoon the winds above us are more in the 30-40 MPH range…so while not as nasty windy as today…it will still be windy.

On Friday a cold front comes into the picture. This front will ooze south as the morning moves along. With the persistent S/SW winds for the next 48 hours…moisture will be coming up from the Gulf region. Dew points will be increasing to around 55° or so. The front oozing south on Friday will be “shallow” and only a few thousand feet thick initially. This cooler air will knife under the warmer and moist air above it. It’s a recipe for clouds and in some cases drizzle and light rain. That should develop from KC south as the day, and especially the afternoon moves along.

Temperatures will be in the 50s on Friday for most areas from KC northwards. Then the cooler air presses farther south Friday night into Saturday. I expect temperatures to mostly be in the 40s on Saturday. The issue then is what about additional rain? The answer is yes…especially by Saturday afternoon as the front will be south of here and disturbances come up in the WSW flow aloft from the Plains. This is a pretty good recipe for rain, and as long as the disturbances track closer to I-70…we should get a pretty decent rain out of this set-up.

IF things track a bit farther south…then the better rains will shift south as well I think. Hopefully 1/4-3/4″ is doable in this set-up…with higher totals down towards the Lakes.

Sunday with clouds around and the rain ending early in the day…temperatures may bot get much above 45°

There are some signals for another system, rain, coming on Tuesday as we set up for hopefully a good Thanksgiving with milder trends. Overall though next week looks active and we’ll be trying to thread a weather needle in good weather on Thanksgiving before another system comes after that.

Our feature photo comes from Sandy Henricks. Her daughter took this I believe

Joe

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