Joe’s Weather World: A heat break down the road with rain (FRI-7/24)

Weather

This summer is flying right along now…and we’ve been in a seasonably warm pattern for quite some time. This month is running only about 1° above average…and after the weekend we’ll have more close to average days it appears. Yesterday was the 26th day of 90°+ highs…last year we only hit 90°+ highs 25 times for the whole year. On average we get 41 days a year with those highs.

We’ve got more 90s coming over the next few days BUT there should be at least some relief starting Monday and hopefully some rain as well.

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Forecast:

Today: Turning partly cloudy with scattered storms possible after 3PM or so. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat index values between 100-105° this afternoon.

Tonight: Fair skies and mild with lows in the mid 70s

Tomorrow: Same with highs in the lower 90s

Sunday: About the same with highs approaching 95°

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Discussion:

So “meteorological” summer is more than halfway done now…about 5 weeks to go…through the end of August…and so far we’re running in 36th place for the warmest summer in KC weather records. This was mostly on the back of a toasty June. Really this month…in the big scheme of things has been pretty typical.

We’ll trend a few degrees up over the weekend as the winds increase a bit so that may provide a bit of relief from the heat…but the dew points are going to be seasonably high so that won’t be helpful.

I am expecting a change though later Sunday night into Monday in the form of a cold front. That front will move in during the wee hours of Monday morning and allow cooler air to flow southwards. With that comes rain as well.

Storms will develop in Nebraska on Sunday and while the storms should move towards the east north east…the whole area will be dropping southeastwards. In time…perhaps near 12AM Monday…rain will move into the area.

The issue is how decent is the rain coming in in terms of coverage and how heavy will it be. Hopefully we can see widespread 1/4>1″ totals from this…northern MO may see more.

The front will bring some cooler air with it + there will be rain cooled air helping push the front southwards…so it’s possible, depending on how long the clouds and rain linger into Monday, that highs struggle to get to 80°. IF the rain and clouds clear out quicker we’ll pop in the 80-85° range I think.

Seasonable weather is expected after that, although it probably won’t be rain free after Monday…we’ll have a least a chance later in the week.

Meanwhile over the weekend the tropics will be an item of conversation, especially newly formed Hanna in the western Gulf of Mexico. That will have direct impacts on southern Texas over the weekend and it’s possible it could become the season’s 1st hurricane.

Hanna is the 8th named storm of the season…and yes this is unusual for late July. It’s the fasted “to 8 named storms” in modern record history. As a matter of fact since July 6th 4 named storms have formed in the “Atlantic” basin…which is a record as well. A caveat…with improved satellite detection, technology that didn’t really exist before the 1970s…the record isn’t as reliable or perhaps as “complete” as we’d like…but we have what we have and it’s still impressive.

Most of the systems this year though (so far…and it will change) have been marginal in terms of strength.

Hanna information…

Gonzalo…it’s a small storm overall…a bit ragged looking too.

in the above satellite pictures, it’s in the lower left side…pretty small.

Interesting to note the Hanna in the western Gulf will be impacting an area that is being highly affected by the Covid 19 virus right now.

So needless to say the tropics are active and they may not be done for the month of July.

Have a great weekend! Our feature photo comes from William Johnson who takes great landscape pictures…this was out towards Higginsville the other day.

Joe

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