Joe’s Weather World: A lot of ups and downs coming this month (THU-10/1)

Weather

September ended up being a cooler than average month…by almost 2° and a drier month as well…some 3+” below average officially at KCI. This month though…may be different, at least from a temperature standpoint. While cooler than average weather will linger into early next week…a nice warm-up is expected beyond that…and while there will be ups and downs through mid-month…I think that the 6th>15th will overall be milder than average…and perhaps that trend goes for a good part of the month.

I do have concerns about moisture. Octobers can be pretty dry around here sometimes…and while there may be some showers on Saturday, the rain amounts don’t look too aggressive to me right now…and beyond that things look pretty darn dry through the following weekend at this point.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and breezy with highs in the lower 60s

Tonight: Fair and cold. Lows 35-40° with patchy frost possible from the KC area northwards

Tomorrow: Fair skies with more clouds in the PM. Highs in the low>mid 60s

Saturday: Some rain is likely in the morning through early afternoon. Then Variable clouds and turning a bit nicer with highs 60-65°

Sunday: Overall OK with highs in the lower 60s

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Discussion:

When looking at the overall weather pattern for the next couple of weeks…it seems like it’s pretty typical for October. There will be the usual swings in the temperatures…nothing overly cold for any length of time…and lots of dry air. In other words some really nice fall days are coming this way though the middle of the month I think.

It’s not going to surprise me if we see an expansion of some drought conditions over the coming weeks…the report for today came out…indicating an increasing area of dryness in the region.

Take a look at KS…

and from MO…

A smidge of moderate drought conditions showing up in far NW MO…and also there is some moderate to severe conditions in far SW MO.

Things have been drying out though…and granted we got a good rain last week…but with the wind…the drier air mass and a lot of sunshine, that rain gets zapped quickly in the soils. Working in our favor is the gradual shut-down and dormancy coming to the vegetation as the fall moves along.

The forecast over the next couple of weeks is not overly wet though. Here is the latest 8-14 day forecast from the Climate Predication Center.

combined with the temperature trends…

That’s an overall warm and dry forecast.

October is here and that means an overall downward average trend in temperatures…we start with average highs in the lower 70s and finish with average lows in the lower 60s

We also average a bit more than 3″ of rain. It’s overall our 5th driest month of the year.

IF there is going to be bigger rains…it may have to wait till the back half of the month based on the current data at least.

The GFS ensembles only give us about 1/3″ of rain through the 16th.

Meanwhile in the daily weather situation…

Tomorrow’s weather story will be the risk of frost. The longer nights and clear skies, combined with dry air and a cool air mass will allow temperatures to drop quickly after midnight tonight. So that by daybreak we get down to the 35-40° range. The only thing that could prevent this frost from happening is some cloud cover.

There are signs that some clouds could move in after 2-3AM around 15-20,000 feet up. That would eliminate one of those ingredients that we look for…and without clear skies temperatures may steady out a bit before sunrise preventing anything but patchy frost.

That will be one of the things that I watch for overnight.

Tomorrow looks like a pretty nice day with sunshine and highs into the 60s once again.

The next issue would be rain chances on Saturday as warmer air aloft tries to fight it’s way northwards again into a cool air mass. That results in clouds…and there will be at least some rain showers in the area during the 1st part of the day on Saturday. There are indications that perhaps things could move along a bit quicker and end faster on Saturday. That means we could actually enjoy a pretty nice afternoon in the area with temperatures rebounding into the 60s

From there…pleasant Sunday and then a nice couple of warmer days…we may get to around 80° or so on Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday too depending on the progression of a cold front coming down

Saw this this morning…so #2020

Most of those were hurricane related…

Our feature photo comes from David Bledsoe who was watching the nearly full moon last night rise in the east. Tonight it’s a full moon and there is another one on Halloween…2 full moons this month…the 2nd one is called the “blue moon”

Joe

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