Joe’s Weather World: A murky Monday (MON-3/23)

Weather

Not a pretty start to the work week around these parts. Fog, cutting visibility to about 1/4 mile or so, is prevalent in the area and will gradually lift later this morning…but it’s going to be tough to chase the clouds away today.

There is another system coming inbound for later tonight with overnight rain possible…probably well after 12AM and lingering through the 1st half of Tuesday. There is another system on Friday that may dump some chilly air back into the area over the weekend…at least on Saturday.

The good news is that we should make a run on 70° on Wednesday!

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Forecast:

Today: Foggy this morning then cloudy this afternoon. Highs in the 50s with enough thin spots this afternoon

Tonight: Rain develops overnight…lows in the 40s

Tomorrow: Rainy in the morning…drier in the afternoon with highs in the 50s

Wednesday: Milder with more sunshine and highs near 70°

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Discussion:

A blah last two days in the area…

Today we’re sort of trapped again with a lot of low level moisture (fog/low clouds) that will take a bit of time to thin out. The sounding from the balloon launch in Topeka indicates about a 3,000 foot moist layer of air sitting on top of the area. This moist layer is also within a column of air where the winds are very light…so there is nothing to really mix out the moisture in the form of winds.

That means we have to rely on an increasing late March sun angle to help sort of burn through the clouds and while that could be tough, I would expect to see that layer get squeezed later this afternoon and at least allow some thin spots to materialize.

Overnight a weak and quick moving wave will come into the Plains and allow more lift to be created…this means rain…perhaps some storms south. Another 1/4″-3/4″ of rain is likely.

Farther south there may be some stronger storms, especially towards SE KS and NE OK. The SPC is watching that area for tonight.

That area is the more favorable area (hail more likely) because they are on the edge of a rather strong low level jet stream that that will poking right into SE KS. This means there will be enhanced lift above the surface in that area.

You can see that more clearly when looking at the forecast wind speeds at the 850 millibar level…or around 5,000 feet up…

See how the strong winds are sort of “poking” into SE KS…that is the area to watch. As we go farther up in the atmosphere…to around 18,000 feet…there is a lot of “difluence”. This means the air is spreading out farther up. When the air spreads out…that means air has to rush in below that to fill the space…and it gets lifted…

This map is valid for 3AM Tuesday

So it appears that their is a confluence of factors for storms to develop farther to the SW of KC overnight. Those storms should move ENE or NEwards…most of the heavier rains passing south of the KC area…so the higher rain amounts will be south of the Metro I think.

The tomorrow the risk of rain is there during the 1st part of the day especially.

Wednesday looks nice.

The late week system is actually stronger and will need to be watched…data today has it coming towards the NW of the region…at least aloft…while at the surface their is a storm near the area…depending on where that sets up may increase our severe weather risk locally…IF we get into the warmer and more humid air mass that will be lurking south of the I-70 corridor. Again let’s watch this. SPC isn’t outlining our area at this point…but it bears watching.

My feature photo is from April Yost

Joe

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