Joe’s Weather World: A shot of cold + rain + snow risks again (THU-2/20)

Weather

Good morning…a skiff of snow for some areas…here at the house we got a minor dusting at some point overnight. I got to bed around midnight last night and it wasn’t snowing at all…but it looks like we had about 3 hours of snow overnight. Never made it to KCI it appears.

The issue all night was what I talked about for a couple of days…too much dry air with weak lift trying to overcome it. There were some areas though that got some accumulations it appears..especially SW of the Metro and south of Topeka.

_____________________________________________________

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny skies with highs around freezing. Light winds

Tonight: Clear skies and cold with lows near 15°. Might be colder in some areas, especially on the MO side towards the SE and E of KC where south winds are later in coming

Tomorrow: After a cold start we moderate in the afternoon with highs 40-45°

Saturday: Milder but breezy so a cool feel. Highs in the mid 50s

Sunday: Rain developing towards afternoon with highs in the mid 40s.

_______________________________________________________

Discussion:

This is a pretty cold air mass for late February. Temperatures this morning tanked to almost -30° across northern MN towards the Arrowhead region up there.

Around here though…we dropped into the upper teens. Cold for sure but the overnight clouds helped out and while the model guidance was suggesting colder the clouds helped us out. Tonight those clouds won’t be here.

The recipe during this time of the year for a really cold night are light winds…dry air…a cold air mass…clear skies and snow pack. We’re missing the last one…and the light winds, while there, will be switching towards the south overnight after 12AM. I get a bit hesitant about really tanking the lows with more than a couple of hours of south winds.

So regardless it’s cold…just not as cold as what it could be with a pretty strong high right on top of the region. Let’s shoot for 10-15° or so. Perhaps a bit colder in some locations on the MO side where the south winds might take even longer to come…especially east and southeast of KC

The good news is the south winds will contribute to a nice warm-up back to average levels tomorrow…40s…then we don’t drop as much tomorrow night and warm up even more on Saturday…mid 50s with breezy conditions.

The storm that will be affecting the Plains on Sunday is off the coast of CA right now…

It will come into CA tomorrow and move into the Rockies on Sunday. You can follow the storm best buy looking at the next animation. See the “dip” or U shape moving through the southern Rockies…that is the storm that we’ll watch. The animation stops at 3 1/2 days…

So from there later Sunday it comes eastbound. Rain will develop on Sunday morning and sweep up towards the NNE ahead of the storm. This will move in sometime later in the morning or afternoon. We should be in the 40s on Sunday…

The storm, as I’ve written about already is really actually taking a good track for snow locally. The issue is that there will be so much warm air ahead of the storm at the surface and aloft that the storm won’t be able to chill the atmosphere down enough on Sunday to get any snow going around these parts.

The storm’s slowdown though could make Monday a bit more interesting, for far northern MO but we’ll see how that plays out. Monday though may turn into another off and on wet day (mostly liquid it appears for KC) with temperatures in the 40° range. We’ll watch far northern MO because the air aloft may be closer to supporting some wet snowflakes up there.

From there it may or may not get more interesting as there will be another storm aloft dumping into the Plains. The EURO is most aggressive with this…and it trying to pull a rare snowstorm out of a hat with the way it’s trying to generate snow and using some leftover moisture from the Sunday>Monday storm. It’s very questionable I think but worth watching. The GFS has the same storm, although not as wound up…but it’s up towards IA and not towards Joplin like the EURO does

The reason why it’s sort of interesting is that unlike the Sunday system…this time…TUE>WED there would be cold air around…and it would be tapped into IF the EURO is correct. Again the model is trying to throw a Hail Mary right not for snow lovers so I’ll hold off getting too worked up about it. I’ve been telling the team though that we are trying to set up for something next week for the last few days…we’ll see.

Regardless colder than average temperatures are likely for most of next week again it appears so the month will finish off below average it appears.

We’re running 1.6° above average on the February temperatures so we’ll see how this erodes that over the next 9 days or so.

Our feature photo comes from Robert Miller of some weeping cirrus clouds. Actually the reason for the “tails” is that there are ice crystals coming from the base of the small clouds. The crystals are evaporating as the fall through the sky.

Joe

Tracking Coronavirus

More Tracking Coronavirus

Weather News

Popular

Latest

More News