Joe’s Weather World: Another crazy 10-day ride…can it snow? (MON-10/19)

Weather

We haven’t had moisture in weeks…and while there may be something light around on Tuesday…we’re now waiting till later Thursday night into early Friday for about a 6 hour window where we can get some rain around these parts.

The most noteworthy part of the forecast has been the temperature swings and more of that is ahead too…

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Forecast:

Tuesday: Cloudy skies with some drizzle possible. Temperatures again struggle with readings in the 40s to near 50°

Tuesday night: Variable clouds…if we clear out there could be a decent frost in some areas, especially from KC northwards. Lows in the 30s

Wednesday: Some scattered showers/storms possible, mainly up towards the north of KC. It’s not out of the question that we could get at least some rain in the area. Tempertures should moderate back to near 60°

Thursday: Here comes the warmth and the wind. Gusts may be over 40 MPH again…temperatures reach the low>mid 80s. Rain chances increase very late in the evening or overnight.

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Discussion:

So typically with the blog…things sort of settle for awhile heading through the summer…and even into the early fall. The weather is often more calm…and while we go through temperature swings all the time in October…there are only so many ways to write about that.

The good news is that as we get later and later in the fall season…and the specter of winter weather develops…I’ll be blogging a lot more because there will be a lot more to write about. We’ve had snow these last few Octobers (we average 2/10ths”…and in case you didn’t see what happened up towards IA today…well let’s just say you can get sticking snow in October if it snows hard enough.

What is that about a 3-5 hour drive north?

Yeah…that’s a nice swath of 3-8″ of snow up there!

We’re locked in with a lot of clouds…and while there may be some thin spots every so often tomorrow I don’t think we’ll get a lot of clearing for quite some time…keeping this chilly air mass in place around the area with light winds. Hence a day (like Monday) with highs about 15° below average.

Wednesday should be somewhat better as as may enjoy at least some sunshine for awhile into the early afternoon before the clouds come back to the region.

Thursday will be interesting because another strong cold front will be coming into the region. We’ll be ahead of the front again (just like this past Saturday) with some very strong winds above the surface that should work down towards the ground. On Saturday we had near 50 MPH winds…I’m not sure we do that again Thursday but it will get close assuming we have a good deal of sunshine.

This front will be another strong wind…winds ahead of it and winds behind it. Look at the temperature anomalies for the middle of the day.

A lot of red…and in the western Plains and MT a lot of blue>purple…so some 20-25° above average ahead and then some 20-25° below average behind the front…impressive and you can see the forecast highs off the GFS model for THU and the contrast…

I don’t think we’ll tie a record…but we may be within shouting distance…

That’s about a 70° frontal change in highs from KS>MT.

So yes Friday will be markedly different.

As you know most missed out on the rain with the last front on this past Saturday. There just wasn’t enough surface moisture to help create some better rain around here…there will be a difference in the moisture set-up though with this next front…

Here are the forecast dew points for 7PM Thursday.,..

With the front this past Saturday evening…dew points were only near 40°…big difference.

Hopefully we can get something from this. Most guidance is under 1/2″ or so…but we’d take it at this rate.

Then it’s cold heading into the weekend again…like today.

Now the curious case of next week. There may be 2 significant storms in the Plains…one potentially Sunday ushering in yet another cold air dump…and then there is the system after that that is somewhat interesting to me. It will be coming into cold air…especially above the surface…and it could potentially create snow somewhere nearby.

There are more than a few models that have been suggesting that there is a window for mischief from Sunday>Tuesday. To be fair though…there were some models that were jumped on that created snow locally yesterday and or today so it’s worth not getting too worked up about at this point.

With that said…we know it can snow in October…we know it can stick in October…and IF that wave/storm is REAL and IF the cold air is there (that part looks more likely) something “weird” could get close.

Something to pay attention too for the blog at least.

The feature photo comes from Sheila Jackson

Joe

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