Joe’s Weather World: Another October snow (MON-10/26)

Weather

Not quite the winter wonderland out there but it is snowing… and in some cases it’s coming down pretty good as I start this blog. More is expected today…and it will be interesting to see IF we can crank out 1″+ to set a daily record for snow on the 26th. We’ve done that two other times, recently in 1997.

The cold though is impressive for today. Colder too than I thought. Some model data over the weekend and to some extent last week was indicating this potential and I thought it was overly cold…nope it was right…that is leading to some slick spots on bridges and overpasses as well as exposed surfaces this morning.

We’re not done with the whole thing either…odds are tomorrow we’ll have to deal with something…and then the main storm comes later Wednesday into Thursday. That will bring some decent to significant rain with it, and spell the end of this whole mess.

A nice weekend and early next week is likely… don’t forget to set your clocks back one hour over the weekend as well.

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Forecast:

Today: Occasional periods of snow. It may mix in with some ice pellets every so often. The snow should wind down before evening. Temperatures steady around 30° with wind chills near 20°.

Tonight: Cloudy with a few patches of flurries around. Temperatures steady in the 25-30° range

Tomorrow: Clouds and another batch of mixed precip coming up from the southwest but it should switch over to rain or sleet. It shouldn’t create too many problems as temperatures gradually increase through the 30s

Wednesday: Clouds and rain moving in towards evening. Not as cold though as temperatures will rise into the 40s.

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Discussion:

So more or less things are working out. It took awhile last night to get the snow going but it came and was mostly in the dusting to 1″ range.

There is still snow out there…another batch moving in now through the Metro (near 9AM). This will be the case off and on through the day it appears with decreasing coverage tonight.

This is just a small part really of a whole mess of weather coming this way this week.

Here is radar from Pleasant Hill.

Most of the area will see all snow today with perhaps a bit of a mix well south of KC.

Accumulations will be mostly under 2-3″ for the KC south of I-70 with less than 1-2″ for areas north of Downtown it appears and then an even bigger drop off north of KC to a dusting.

For a dead of winter storm…not a big deal really…for late October though…pretty impressive. We’ll see IF we can get to 1″ at KCI…that might be a bit of a push.

The temperatures are also impressive…the record low today is 25° set in 1980. I don’t think we’ll get there this morning but we’re close. At 8AM the temperature was 28° with colder air moving down from the north.

Temperatures are in RED

There is also some drier air working down from the north as well below 5,000 feet and that may play a big role in keeping snow totals significantly from around KCI and points north.

This is just a little disorganized wave(s) coming up from the southwest…ahead of an upper level storm that is moving through the Rockies. As we look at the upper level moisture…you can see this storm.

This storm has brought a lot of early season snow to the Rockies…and in areas that have been devastated by wildfires although I think the fires are still burning even though th esnow is falling.

Take a look…

The yellow is at least 6″ and the red is 18″. This is great news for them.

A lot of cold is out there…

Speaking of which…this is pretty impressive for October..from yesterday.

So it’s cold for sure…and wintry.

That upper level storm out west, in the Rockies, will drop into Arizona over the next 24 hours and continue to kick out weak disturbances in the flow aloft. Tomorrow afternoon another one comes out of the main storm. It’s sort of unorganized and will be flying through the region but it may create a new area of winter weather and perhaps some rain if temperatures above us warm above 32°. You can see this unfold as we go up to about 18,000 feet or so. See the big glob of red in the southwest US? That’s the main system…and the blotches of red are little areas of lift coming out of it.

There should be a lull for most of the day on Wednesday before more comes this way Wednesday night but by then the atmosphere will not be as cold and that will be rain.

So that by Thursday morning…this is the idea…

The whole thing will go south of here but moisture will circulate around the storm and move up towards us…then as the storm moves towards eastern AR…a whole area of moisture will be wrapping back into KC on Thursday and this could bring locally heavy rain into the region before things finally dry out early Friday it appears when we rapidly clear out.

From there we’re in good shape. The rain though on Thursday could be in the 1-3″ range…very wet!

At this point beyond that things look more comfortable and drier.

Meanwhile there is Zeta down in the Gulf which will be a bigger storm in a couple of days.

It’s not really that well organized and appears to be sheared. It will also be moving through not as warm waters over the next 48 hours. So we’ll see just how strong it is when it gets to the coast.

Impressive…and the tropics may not be done…perhaps something else towards the Caribbean in November too.

Karli took this picture today…thought it was appropriate.

Joe

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