Joe’s Weather World: Another summer transition with rain chances returning (WED-8/5)

Weather

Congrats KC…we’re starting the day with a record low temperature. 54° this morning…wonderful for the 1st week of August. This is it though…after a great day today with some clouds at times…we’re going to start to see the dew points climb tomorrow and the temperatures will be edging up as well.

This is a return to the summer weather that we’ve been expected. Not terrible tomorrow…but the heat and humidity will come back in earnest over the weekend with near or above 90° days expected into next week. There are a couple of ways we could knock things down a bit…and that is connected to the rain chances that will be increasing.

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Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and pleasant with highs in the mid>upper 70s

Tonight: Fair and not as cool with lows near 60° (still nice)

Tomorrow: Variable clouds…there may be a few sprinkles or even a shower out there. Highs in the lower 80s. Rain chances increase towards the overnight

Friday: Better chances in the AM through lunch…then partly cloudy and muggier with highs in the mid 80s.

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Discussion:

After the low yesterday (not a record) of 53°…and the low this morning at 54° (new record) … you can’t complain about the cooler weather for early August. Take a look at the coolest temperatures in about 130+ years of records…for the 1st 5 days of August. Insert the 54° low this morning into the fray.

Just wonderful. Now though we’re starting a gradual transition and will become more vulnerable to more heat…humidity (higher dew points) and rain chances, especially on the latter for the morning hours.

The 8AM surface map shows the dew points representing 60° or higher shaded in green. They’re mostly to the south for now…but as the winds gradually shift towards the south this moisture will be coming northwards this evening…and will continue to increase tomorrow as things become muggier on Thursday.

While this is happening…the flow aloft will be shifting towards the west north west. This is going to allow disturbances to come up from the southwest…cross over the central Rockies…and drop into the Plains. This means rain chances will be on the increase in the region…including the KC area.

There will be one disturbance tomorrow…that may just be a cloud-maker…perhaps a few light showers/sprinkles somewhere out there. A stronger wave comes our way on Friday morning and means better chances of more significant rain in the area. This will be helped by an increasing overnight low level jet stream that will be pointing at the area from the southwest.

That is a combination that should create rain…and I have high expectations of rain in the area Friday morning into at least Lunch. How long this lasts beyond lunch will depend on how quickly the low level jet stream eases off or changes which way it’s pointing.

This set-up is also there on Saturday early morning as well although perhaps somewhat more favorable towards the MO side.

We are also sort of on the edge of the building cap in the atmosphere that helps to limit the thunderstorms from building. We’re not capped though…till perhaps on Sunday. So that’s why Friday and Saturday give us the rain chances. You can get some pretty heavy rains…1-2″+ in this set-up so it’s worth monitoring for localized flooding.

The EURO model shows these totals…

and the NAM model has this…

That’s a 6″ max towards the east north east of KC…northeast of Smithville. That’s probably wrong…but there is some potential for at least 2″, if not more, for areas that a hit by the two opportunities.

From a temperature standpoint…hotter and more seasonable weather is moving our way. I don’t think temperatures will get out of control but there will be typically humid air..and that means a return to the heat index values approaching or exceeding 100°.

Here is the latest 6-10 day outlook.

Pretty strong signal of above average probabilities from the SW part of the country to New England (which is having one very hot summer already).

Our feature photo comes from Marty Martinez out at Square Pizza in Independence Missouri

See you tonight on the news!

Joe

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