Joe’s Weather World: Aside from Saturday…pretty smooth sailing

Weather

So delightful fall weather on the agenda with just enough to talk about but yet enough great days ahead to make everyone happy I think. The pattern isn’t very wet…there is really one>two chances of rain showing up over the next week…and once again the forecast is leaning towards the warm side for next week.

We could pop back into the 70s for a day…perhaps 2 but really this is about the time of the year where I start looking for milder days, if for no other reason than to get the Christmas lights up outside. I try and do that when I can feel my fingers!

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Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and pleasant. Highs 55-60°. Winds will increase later today and this evening for a few hours as a cold front comes through the area. It will be a dry front though.

Tonight: Clear and colder with lows in the mid 20s

Tomorrow: Chilly with highs in the upper 40s with increasing clouds.

Saturday: There may be some early morning showers…then again later in the day. Really two causes to this…the 2nd cause is a cold front coming though later in the afternoon. Highs could pop into the low>mid 60s with enough sunshine. Windy as well..

Sunday: Sunny and cooler with highs in the 50s

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Discussion:

So a series of cold fronts will be coming through the area but the air masses coming our way aren’t really overly cold. There is cold air…but most will be diverted up across the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region. So we basically get a couple of quick glancing blows of chilly air and nothing really long lasting.

The first one comes later today as a cold front comes through the area. The front this morning is located up across the Plains…it will come through later this afternoon.

It’s not overly strong…but tomorrow will be about 10° cooler. There will also be an increase in the clouds and that will also tend to temper the warm-up somewhat.

Tomorrow night the colder air starts to move out…and there will be a disturbance coming up from the SW. It won’t be overly focused but it may be enough to help to saturate the atmosphere and at least create some rain. How much we get around here remains to be seen but it probably won’t be much…odds favor under 1/4″ or so…if even that.

The new NAM mode shows this idea…with the heavier amounts towards the south and southeast of the region.

That is through Saturday morning.

Then later in the day a cold front will come through the region. Depending on how much warmth we can build up…again potentially in the 60s…there may be some additional showers or even a few rumbles that try to pop. There doesn’t look to be a lot of instability though…perhaps a pinch more farther off to the east of the Metro. At this point I think the chances of rain before 10AM SAT are around 70% from KC south…then about 30% after 4PM.

Sunday will be a blustery and cooler day but again nothing too cold. We could have 20–35 MPH winds though.

Monday starts cold with a bit of recovery in the afternoon.

From there we’re off to the races…nice warm-up into the 60s Tuesday and a potential 70-75° day(s) after that.

So Eta is still going in NE FL.

Theta is out in the eastern Atlantic…and a potential 30th named storm may be trying to come together down in the Caribbean. This looks to be another Central America issue down the road.

It’s denoted by the X south of the Dominican Republic. That has some real potential to intensify as the shear will be low and the water temperatures will certainly support something significant.

Yesterday’s “average” day of weather knocked us down a peg to 8th warmest start to November.

2016 has popped above us. That winter we had 4.9″ of snow.

Our feature photo comes from Scott Carolyn Mallin

See you on the news tonight and in the blog tomorrow.

Joe

Kansas City Weather News

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