Joe’s Weather World: Avoiding a heat wave this week (MON-7/6)

Weather

Overall not too bad of a holiday weekend. We were avoiding some storms on Saturday…but yesterday was pretty good and today should be about the same. Over the next few days temperatures will be creeping up it appears…90-95° seems likely with heat index values approaching 100° in spots…but there are decent signals for more rain coming.

Sometimes the heat quickly builds in and locks in…sometimes it tries to build in but gets beaten back because of thunderstorms that come in from the NW. That may be the case later in the week. Storms may be an issue on Thursday and perhaps Friday and Saturday. That will beat done the higher heat potential for a few days.

There are conflicts for next week though. The EURO builds in extreme heat and humidity…temperatures approaching 100°…the GFS doesn’t do this however and brings in cooler weather.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and seasonably hot with highs near 90°. Some isolated storms are possible in the afternoon into the early evening.

Tonight: Fair and mild with lows in the 72-75° area

Tuesday: Ditto…highs in the lower 90s

Wednesday: Ditto…highs in the lower 90s

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Discussion:

Some interesting air quality issues over the weekend. We typically have a lot of pollution as a result of all the fireworks that are set off…this weekend though seemed like we had more than usual. Take a look.

The particulates that were seen were very high and were the result of all the smoke that was out there as a by-product of all the fireworks. This was the seen yesterday morning in Downtown KC

So that was yesterday morning…and because of the lack of wind and the high moisture content of the air…there still may be some lingering haze in the area today.

Meanwhile our typical summer weather continues for the next few days.

The timeframe where storms could be an issue will be opening on Thursday as a disturbance comes into the area from the NW. This is along the edge of the more extreme summer heat that will be building out across the western Plains this week. It’s going to get nasty hot out there it appears. Near 105° temperatures are likely out there on Wednesday.

Highs on Wednesday

This heat at the surface and aloft will be pressing eastwards on Thursday. A disturbance on the northern side of the heat, out towards Nebraska will be developing and moving eastwards…as it comes into eastern Nebraska it will turn southeastwards and likely bring what it has left into the area. This would be on Thursday. There will be a risk of heavy rain and strong winds depending on how well this holds together as it drops southeastwards.

This will tend to beat back the heat on Thursday and Friday…and that may set up a repeat performance on Friday…and potentially into the weekend too. This all results in temperatures being closer to average or even below average for highs for a couple of days. It will also bring some needed rain to areas that missed out last week.

Actually flooding could become an issue in parts of the area by the time Sunday rolls around…there will be a ton of moisture in the atmosphere…so what comes down, depending on how fast it drops southeast will have the potential of creating a lot of rain in parts of the region. 1-5″ of rain is possible cumulatively through the end of the weekend in the region.

We’ll see about next week though…it may get really hot…perhaps not 100° hot, because of we get a bunch of rain later this week into the weekend that will have to work it’s way through the system…but it will turn into a lot of steam heat…95°+ with 75° dew points creates a heat index approaching 110°…that would be pretty nasty next week.

By the way…Edwaord formed yesterday…out in the middle of the Atlantic…no issues really from this system. A lot of weak systems so far this season. Noteworthy because it’s the earliest “E” storm on record. Important to note though that IF this was the 1950s or 60s…we may not of classified this as a tropical storm…this was discovered because of all the great satellite systems that we have now watching the weather in the world.

OK that’s it for today. Our feature photo comes from Stephanie Bush

Joe

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