Joe’s Weather World: Big picture…hot 1st half of July (WED-7/1)


Another significant thunderstorm complex rolled through parts of MO overnight and early this morning. Rain was heavy…some areas with well over 2″ and perhaps over 3″ too. There was some limited wind damage as well.

We talked about the storms last night…but once again they took their vengeance out on the east side of the Metro. This is frustrating on my end because while I wasn’t surprised about the storms…I was surprised about the 2-3+” of rain in such a short amount of time locally.

These overnight complexes are pretty necessary to get moisture in the summer months…and we’ve had a few of these this season so far…but boy figuring out where and when they move through is a tough thing to do even within hours of their arrival.



Today: Cloudy this morning becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon with highs 85-90. Lighter winds

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies and muggy with lows in the 70s

Tomorrow: Hot and humid with highs in the lower 90s. Heat index near 100°

Friday: Not much of a change…highs near 90°.



Well some got dumped on with rain…others didn’t get much at all and many farther west got nothing. Where it came down though…impressive.

There are some near 3″ totals around Claycomo…

Farther towards the southwest of the map above…

See how quickly the totals dropped off…

Here is a look at doppler estimates…

Look at the bullseye right on top of the east side of KC in Jackson County, MO.

Last night I had a feeling at least something could happen…increased the rain chances…but 3+” of rain wasn’t in my forecast for the east side of the Metro. Here is a look at the radar replay.

These complexes are important during the summer for needed rainfall. It essentially provided our only rain in Late June…and we’re starting the month of July with over 1″ up at KCI.

They’re fascinating to watch unfold…we had some clues in the model data yesterday that it could happen…but at the same time they’re frustrating as heck to try to time out to the hour…in the case this morning they came in about 2 hours faster than I thought and they’re tough sometimes to figure out how well they’ll hold together.

Over the next few days…can’t rule out additional chances every so often for rain…the concern though is how things may be shutting done from a rain standpoint as we head into next week and beyond. Yesterday I showed you the July forecast…

You can clearly see the highest probability of above average temperatures are east of the Rockies…

I agree with this…and the data today shows strong heating taking over the Plains heading into the new month. We’ll be sort of waffling around over the next 5 days or so with highs around 90° give or take.

After that though…as we start to bake out the soil again…temperatures are going to be heading upwards. There are strong signals in the data today that the week of 7/6 and after will be trending hotter and hotter. The 2nd weekend of July is looking very hot right now.

The EURO model just had an upgrade yesterday so I need to see how it performs in the heat of the summer…it does tend to be too aggressive with hotter temperatures at times…but the GFS model isn’t that different really.

EURO model…note the upper 90s after next Thursday.
The GFS model…again toasty later next week and next weekend

That type of heat usually means drier weather too but we’ll have to see how the ridge sets up and whether or not we can see disturbances come over the ridge and create storms overnight to alter the atmosphere.

Our feature photo comes from Dana Wyatt


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