Joe’s Weather World: Cooler air moving in with some rain Saturday (FRI-11/20)

Weather

A seasonably strong cold front has oozed south of the Metro today…so no more 70s…today though really won’t be too bad by November standards. Still nicely above average on the northside of KC especially thanks to bonus sunshine.

The rain chances will be increasing as the day tomorrow goes along. It probably won’t be a lot in the end, at least up towards KCI but considering we’ve had measurable moisture on only 7 days out of the last 70 I think…I guess we can’t complain too much.

The pattern is actually pretty active for awhile it appears so there will be more rain opportunities it appears.

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Forecast:

Today: Clouds south with sunshine north. Temperatures on the north side into the lower 60s while the southside sees temperatures more in the upper 50s

Tonight: Increasing clouds and cooler with lows in the 30s

Tomorrow: Clouds lower and thicken with rain developing towards and during the afternoon it appears. Highs may get into the upper 40s before dropping a bit in the rain-cooled air

Sunday: Turning partly cloudy and seasonable with highs in the lower 50s

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Discussion:

So it’s pretty dry out there…and we could use some moisture for sure. Since August 1st this is th e4th driest 8/1>today in KC weather history. This is also the 8th warmest November I believe (or close to it). With all the wind we’ve dealt with…this has really dried things out. In the Spring with things growing like crazy…this would’ve been a bigger issue. In the more dormant fall season though…not as big of a deal for now at least.

The latest drought report shows that there is some “moderate” drought in the region.

and a lot of drought out in the Rockies and the Southwest part of the country.

The front that came through the area earlier today is pushing the warmer air south of the region for awhile. Cooler air will filter in as the day moves along on an increasing NE wind…that will gust to 25 MPH at times, especially on the northside where sunshine will be more prevalent.

The 8AM surface map shows the front has just about stalled towards the south of the Metro.

The air filtering in isn’t the chilliest by November standards. As the next disturbance comes out of the Plains…the set-up isn’t so great really for a lot of rain. The model data, in what has been a theme it seems this fall, has been trending lighter and light for totals. Tomorrow the advancing rain will be fighting some dry air…and that means a slower arrival…later in the day…and less overall rain for KC…odds are increasing that this will be an under 1/3″ event for the Metro as an average. The high res NAM is even less impressive. Concerning trends.

Now look at the hi-res NAM.

So unless something changes…it’s not looking like a big event.

This may also mean that Sunday isn’t the worst day either..just more seasonable with temperatures rebounding into the lower 50s if we can get enough sunshine.

The next system may quickly come towards the area next Monday into Tuesday. Clouds should rapidly increase on Monday and data for the last 12 hours is suggesting perhaps some light rain developing by night. This may actually be a multi-day event that brings rain chances later Monday and Tuesday…and perhaps even Wednesday for awhile.

What comes later Monday is weak and disorganized. The system that comes later Tuesday into Wednesday looks better right now. As a matter of fact there is a closed upper level storm that is forecast to track towards the south of the area. It’s actually a track that IF it was colder out there would be favorable for some snow.

It appears though that there will be so much warm air wrapping up ahead of it and circulating around the system that snow won’t be a “thing” with this one. Hopefully we’ll get some needed rain though especially after a potentially disappointing weekend system.

For a bit of a change though…the model data is getting wetter over the next couple of weeks.

Euro Model Trends
American model trends

At least it’s something.

Hey don’t forget!

The feature photo comes from Vicki Anderson Dolt up in Lawson of a cotton candy sunset.

Possible blog tomorrow…

Joe

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