Joe’s Weather World: Curious about tonight’s snow risk (SUN-12/29)

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2019 is about over with but we may not be over the moisture…as there is the potential of some additional light rain/snow tonight into early Monday…more on that in the discussion. Meanwhile the cooler and more seasonable air has flowed into the area this morning as was well advertised all of last week.

When today is over…it will go into the books as a mild day…officially the high after 12AM was 53°. As I type this we’re down to 40° and will continue to drop off a few more degrees for the rest of the day.

There is quite a bit of snow out there in the Plains and upper Midwest…pretty potent storm too…but for us the curious part of the forecast occurs this evening into the overnight hours as a band of snow may come through…temperatures won’t be overly cold…so I”m not sure there will be significant impacts for the morning rush but we should be near or below 32° from about 12AM onwards…and IF something is falling and melting…with the temperatures dropping…there may be some black ice issues in the morning. Again very tentative but we won’t have a chance to dry out before something could ice up…especially bridges and overpasses.

  • Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy and colder but really just seasonable with temperatures 35-40° or so and a blustery wind contributing to wind chills in the 20s to near 30° or so.

Tonight: A band of mixed precip t snow is possible…amounts would be minor but again with that temperature combination near 30…down into the 20s towards daybreak…what falls may melt then try to freeze in spots…especially bridges and overpasses. Lows in the mid>upper 20s

Monday: Mostly cloudy and blustery with highs in the mid 30s but it will feel chillier than that with wind chills in the 20s

Tuesday: More sunshine and seasonable with highs in the 40° range

  • Discussion:

Not exactly the prettiest way to finish 2019…

The main thrust of moisture has been shoved towards the Lakes region into the TN Valley…with other moisture in the Plains and upper Midwest. We’re just sort of in a lot of low clouds…but there are some morning breaks of sunshine out there too (briefly).

The 8AM map shows the cooler air (temperatures in RED) flowing from the west to the east through KS into western MO

This isn’t overly cold air though…really just typical late December air…and honestly for a storm like this…

Sub-996 mbs or air pressures below 29.40″…there should be more cold air flowing southwards…

Even going up a few thousand feet…the real cold is more or less towards the far northern US and Canada…

Those are the temperatures at around 3000 feet in °C…so 0°C is 32°F and -10°C is 14° F at that level at least.

By the way…at this point this month will end up well above 6° of average…so it’s been a warm month overall…more than half the days have been above 50° which is impressive.

So after a chilly November and October we’re recovering a bit to finish 2019

About tonight…let’s keep an eye on radar…regionally there is snow out towards central Nebraska…

Locally now it’s just cloudy out there…as I showed on the satellite picture earlier…we’ll be watching local radar as well…

Not much expected to show up for awhile though…

The short term HRRR model does show some of the snow in NE coming towards the ESE…

This model should auto-update for you…I think.

For timing purposes…21Z is 3PM…0Z is 6PM…03Z is 9PM…06Z is 12AM and 09Z is 3AM.

Farther up north..this is a nasty snowstorm/blizzard now. The Blizzard warnings are in orange.

Over the past 36 hours…

There was a 22″ report from New Mexico just NE of Santa Fe

So it’s been quite the snow maker…not as much in western KS but they still closed I-70 west of Salina because of all teh snow in Colorado.

Over the next couple of days…

So let’s pay attention to the potential of snow overnight…and the critical temperatures.

The storm aloft in NE has got some little disturbances rotating around it and one of those will be sweeping around…sort of like spokes on a bicycle wheel…and will rotate through the area before 12AM…

Hey the good news is we could run towards 55° on Wednesday…kicking off the New Year

OK that;s it for today…I have a few things going on tomorrow. NO blog…I may get an update out on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Our feature photo comes from Lesa Wardrip‎


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