Joe’s Weather World: Days of clouds…then days of rain chances (THU-5/21)

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Good morning…it won’t shock you that it’s gray again to start the day. I’m somewhat hopeful that we may see a bit more sunshine today compared to yesterday. Which will be nice after the gloomy weather from yesterday that expectedly lasted most of the day.

The forecast though heading into the weekend will get a bit murkier. It will rain…timing a bit of an issue and right now Saturday continues to look to be the driest of the weekend days. There will be storms around starting tomorrow…and what may or may not happen in the morning may affect things later in the day…then what happens on Sunday morning may affect things that happen later Sunday. Then Monday a front is around…which may linger into Tuesday.

Overall through today…we’re running drier than average for May…that could change rather quickly over the next 5 days.



Today: Clouds this morning…more sunshine this afternoon. Highs 70-75°

Tonight: Cloudy with steady temperatures near 60°

Tomorrow: Rain possible in the morning and depending on whether or not that happens…we could see some stronger storms later in the day/evening. Highs in the 70s

Saturday: Partly cloudy, warmer ad muggy with highs in the low>mid 80s

Sunday: Could see some morning storms, depending on how things come together in Nebraska…the partly cloudy and muggy. Storm risks will be around as well…especially later in the day. Highs near 80°



So let’s start with this…the last 30 days of of rain anomalies…

There actually is a developing area of dry conditions in parts of the Plains between I-70 and I-80. It’s spotty though in places…a bit more prevalent though across KS and SE NE.

The drought report above shows developing severe drought+ across the SW part of KS.

Something that should be watched…although we may start to chip away at this, especially in NE over the coming days to some extent.

Rain chances will be increasing through Monday. Although Saturday we should be mostly inbetween things.

Overnight a disturbance is going to be created and come out of the southern Colorado area. This will move into KS tomorrow afternoon and strengthen. As this process occurs…rain may develop near daybreak tomorrow…and we may have some rain in the area 1st thing in the morning. The good news is that this disturbance will change the pattern here in the Plains and chase away the gloomy weather of the week.

As this wave moves through NE and IA later tomorrow…there is a chance of renewed convection later in the day on the KS side…that would move through our area in the evening at some point. Depending on how that plays out there is actually a risk of severe storms…mainly west of here later tomorrow…again very tentative at this point.

The disturbance moving to our north tomorrow evening should bring sinking air into the area on Saturday and that’s why Saturday should be drier with more heat and humidity building. Highs may pop into the lower to mid 80s and there should be some decent humidity too…so a very summerish day coming.

Then on Sunday storms could form up in NE and northern KS and move our way in the morning. How that goes will determine how cloudy the day is, whether or not we have some outflow air around cooling things down and stabilizing things (or not). Renewed storms and rain chances return too later in the day into the evening.

A lot of this is not set in stone. What is though is a cold front that will be moving in the Plains over the last part of the weekend and sort of stall out. That will play a huge role in the weather early next week as you might imagine. Fronts in late May during the wettest time of the year typically produce heavy rains in areas.

The EURO ensemble data shows this…showing total rain through next Tuesday night

and the GFS is also on board.

So you could see the optimism for the rain in the Plains…although the western Plains aren’t going to get that much it appears.

So essentially we’re replacing all the gloomy for May days with chances of rain almost every day starting tomorrow.

Final note…I mentioned yesterday with the anniversary of the last F5/EF5 tornado in the USA…back in 2013. It was also the anniversary of the worst tornado in the KC area…the Ruskin Heights tornado in 1957. A lot of remembrances in my FB post.

Our feature photo comes from Lesa Wardrip‎ up towards Parkville, MO


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