Joe’s Weather World: Disappointing rains means we get drier (MON-6/22)

Weather

Well that was not the greatest…not surprising to me at all. Alluded to this in yesterday’s special blog write-up. For the most part, aside from some light showers in the area this morning, we didn’t get much from the variety of storm complexes that were rumbling through the Plains. The areas much farther west of the region…towards central KS and western KS got the bigger rains. Nebraska got some and there were some overnight storms in northern MO…but aside from all that for KC…not so much.

We’ll have some other opportunities this week. A few scattered storms later today…perhaps something on Thursday but nothing looks overwhelming right now and IF we don’t get something going by the weekend…that could set us up for developing drought conditions into the 1st week of July.

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Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy with a few scattered light showers around this morning then the chance of some scattered storms this afternoon. Highs near 85°

Tonight: Fair skies and cooler with lows in the mid 60s

Tomorrow: It should be very nice with mostly sunny skies. Highs in the 80° range. Breezy as well

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and pleasant with highs in the 85° range.

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Discussion:

I wasn’t expecting a lot last night…I was hoping for something though…some sort of breakthrough with these thunderstorm complexes. It wasn’t in the cards. The rains that fell were not really in our area…

The better rains were well west…and that complex of storms dropped towards the SSE

Severe weather, mostly in the form of strong winds..were out there as well.

There were a few tornado reports as well…

Today the risk of severe storms is more towards Texas…

Totally can’t rule out something around here but we’re sort of scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point because a cold front is going to be coming through the area early this afternoon.

The atmosphere is again a chaotic mess this morning. The cold front can be seen…there is an outflow boundary of rain-cooled air in OK as well. It’s going to be somewhat tough for us to get a full recovery of the air mass when that front comes through around lunch or so. There appears to be a better chance on the MO side this afternoon…it’ll be worth watching depending on how warn and unstable they get on the MO side…especially east and southeast of KC.

and so it goes.

Our rainfall deficits will continue to expand.

Here is a look at radar…

By the end of the day we’ll likely be over 3″ below average for what is one of the wettest months of the year, which isn’t too encouraging.

Over the last 30 days the rain anomalies are certainly there for many areas…last night was beneficial for areas towards central KS

Areas southwest of KC are only around 10-20% of the average for the last 30 days…

The thing is. you can see the browning of the grass kicking in now as some of the grass is starting to go dormant and be stressed. I’m increasingly concerned about more dry weather to start the month of July and hot weather too. Take a look at this forecast for the last couple of days in June into the beginning of July.

There does appear to be a ridge setting up on the data in early in July…how well that ridge holds together may go a long way in determining whether we start teetering into drought conditions locally. There should be more opportunities for storms, perhaps overnight type occurrences heading into the weekend but we’ll just have to see how that plays out in the end.

2 final things…the African dust. Early last week I quickly mentioned that this could be something of a curiosity coming up this weekend around here…and that still looks possible. It is very much a thing though towards the Caribbean though…as it makes it’s way eastbound.

You can clearly see the dust in the Atlantic…

and now moving through the Caribbean

It’s blocking out the sun significantly there…here is a view from the Barbados.

I’ll be getting more into this this week assuming there is nothing else to talk about.

Finally last week I participated in a podcast with Climate Action KC.

Here it is…

Our feature photo comes from Fr Jason Koch out towards Montrose, MO

Joe

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