Joe’s Weather World: Does this October snow mean a snowier winter in KC (WED-10/28)

Weather

Happy Wednesday…if this last part to this storm was going to be a snowstorm (it won’t be)…this would be a forecast that would have been sweated for a couple of days. 2 nights ago it would’ve been looking like a huge storm for KC…then we would’ve been backing down quite a bit from that thought yesterday and today would be one of those days where we’d be trying to forecast a dusting to 3-6″ snow across the KC area.

Instead we’ll be watching radar later today and mainly tonight to see how far the RAIN gets up the State Line area. Areas farther north (which will see a good deal of sunshine today by the way) won’t get much at all…or probably nothing. Areas farther south will see over 1″ of rain.

After this last part though the forecast is dry…dry…dry for days to come it appears…and overall mild too! A couple of set-backs but mostly above average and in the fall season that means some very nice and pleasant weather!

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy from KC south…sunny farther north. Rain moving up the State Line this evening and overnight getting to KC and not much farther north it appears. Temperatures should warm-up into the 40s with 50s farther north of KC.

Tonight: Rain from KC south…although the amounts of rain won’t be too heavy in teh Metro…probably under 1/2″. Areas down towards the Lakes could see about 1″ of rain. Temperatures remain OK with lows in the 40s

Tomorrow: Any rain ends around lunch then some clearing possible. Temperatures may pop IF we get enough sunshine in the afternoon…well into the 40s

Friday: Nicer! Highs well into the 50s

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Discussion:

I feel like I’ve said and written a lot about this storm for the last few days…different parts to it…different precipitation aspects…snow…freezing rain…and now the final part…rain.

It’s also been awhile since we’ve had some nice sunshine around here…although northern MO is going to have a good deal of sunshine…actually not too far north of KC. So the dreary skies are getting old fast.

We’ve set 2 days of record cold highs, including yesterday’s high of 35° shattering the previous record cold high of 40°.

The final act of this storm comes later today and mostly overnight. There are interesting satellite images this morning of the upper level storm in the southern Plains and the hurricane in the Gulf heading towards Louisiana today.

More on the hurricane in a few minutes.

The upper level storm will pass south of the area today but rain ahead of it will come northbound and wrap around the outer circulation. That places the KC area on the northern edge of the influence of this circulation. That makes this rather tricky…because the rain will get to the Metro and about start to stop it’s northwards progress.

The trick is that this could stop farther south…and if that is the case…then we get very little of anything and there has been more than a couple of models suggesting this potential lately.

Here is the way the HRRR handles things.

For timing purposes…18Z is 1PM…21Z is 4PM…0Z is 7PM…3Z is 10PM…6Z is 1AM

We should get something but it probably won’t be a lot of moisture. Good thing this isn’t a snow forecast. Once we get rid of this storm…things get batter faster tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night and there isn’t much coming for awhile after that…through the 1st week of November.

The snow aspect of the last several Octobers has been fascinating. We’ve had 3 straight Octobers with measurable snow. That hasn’t happened in over 130 years of records in KC. So I wanted to know…does this early snow mean anything for the following winter?

So let’s look at the October snows of a 1/10th of an inch or higher.

Now let’s break down what happened that winter…

1996-7: 29.2″

1898-99: 38.6″

1913-14: 26.5″

1908-09: 13.2″

2019-20: 17.2″

1997-98: 19.6″

1912-13: 17.6″

1917-18: 18.6″

1925-26: 42.4″

2018-19: 29.1″

1951-52: 21.2″

There are some rather beefy totals…overall of the 12 Octobers…11 used for this exercise above…7 had above average amounts of snow…while 4 had below average. The lowest was about 13″…the highest was about 3.5 FEET of snow.

IF you average out everything…we come to about 24.8″ of snow. That would be about 6″ above our seasonal average.

So if you go just by statistics…and Mother Nature doesn’t really care about stats…you could not be faulted with going with a bit more snow that average in KC.

Another aspect of this is the developing perhaps moderate La Nina in the Equatorial Pacific.

We only have decent data on ENSO from the 50s onwards…so that cuts down the data above considerably but out of the 3 years with La Nina…AND October snows…1996-97/1997-98/2018-19…each following winter had decent+ snows. 3 for 3 for above average amounts.

So there’s that!

We’ll see…I need to start thinking about the winter over the next few weeks and come up with some sort of idea.

Finally Zeta…the 11th named storm to hit the US coastline…that hasn’t happened in our records before and soon to be the 6th hurricane to hit the US…tying 1896 and 1985. The thing is we may not be done yet…there are signs of something in about 7-10 days that will need watching too.

This is also rather late in the season for a hurricane strike down there!

I believe this will be the 5th hit in Louisiana too! That’s incredible and very expensive down there.

So let’s get rid of this storm…then enjoy some nice weather into the 1st week of November.

The feature photo today comes from the good folks at the People of Cowtown. Pretty shot!

Joe

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