One of the tough things about forecasting during this time of the year is trying to figure out how small features in the atmosphere are going to change the weather unexpectedly. Thunderstorm clusters that form one day create little disturbances that can have big impacts on the weather the next day.
This is because they represent small pockets of somewhat cooler air aloft. Then when the day starts and it’s pretty sunny…during the summer especially we can heat up. That helps to create more rising air with a bit more oompf to it. Then the clouds that develop can grow more vertically. When that happens you can get storms to form.
Today there is one of those disturbances in eastern KS…just sort of waddling around this morning. As we heat up the cumulus puffy clouds may try and grow more upwards…and some areas could see scattered storms develop, especially on the KS side of things.
Today: Partly cloudy and seasonably hot with highs in the upper 80s. There is a chance of storms, especially from KC westwards after 4-5PM or so. Not much wind.
Tonight: Clearing out…warm with lows in the 70° range.
Tomorrow: Not too bad…an isolated storm possible with highs in the 85-90° range…perhaps a bit lower humidity as well.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs around 90°
Yesterday there was a line of strong storms that developed in western KS late in the afternoon and evening. Numerous reports of 60-80 MPH winds were connected to that line as it was moving into central KS late last night. Then it weakened overnight…but was still strong enough to create some rain on the southwest and south side of the area. Parts of Franklin County say over 1/2″ or so.
The tricky part of this is the disturbance in the atmosphere that is generated from these storms. You can sort of see it on the satellite pictures this morning.
It’s out there and sort of spinning around in Northcentral KS
How that holds together today may play a big role in whether or not there are more storms this afternoon. As we heat up to around 90°…there should be a decent amount of instability out there developing. We wont be overly capped…so what clouds develop could have a better chance of developing more in the vertical. Should that happen you will be able to see things sort of unfold by just watching the sky later on.
Storms may well develop before the afternoon is done. Here is radar and again let’s watch this later today and this evening
The storms may just sort of pop in place and not move a whole lot from one area to another. Other storms could fire as the original storms create outflow winds…sort of like mini cold fronts during the heat of the day. So while the KS side has the best chance of seeing at least some scattered activity…it’s worth monitoring because with the heat…sometimes you can get a “pulsey” type severe storm on a localized basis.
At any rate here is a look at the HRRR model…which is trying to pop some convection out there later today especially.
Typically as the sun goes down and the atmosphere cools off…we see these types of storms fade away by 10PM or so.
It’s just the day to day subtle things that we’re watching at this point.
Longer term continues to point towards more seasonably hot weather. There is still somewhat of a difference though in how hot for later next week…and it will be connected to what happens to a developing hot weather pattern out in the Rockies and how far east it builds. The EURO model holds off on this eastward building higher heat (compared to average) until AFTER next weekend…whereas it appears the GFS wants to bring it into the area later next week in force.
Here are the GFS ensemble forecast highs for the next 15+ days…
Now the same from the EURO model…
There is about a 2-4° difference with the EURO being a bit “less hot” but still hot.
We’ll see how this goes…because as we bake out the soil again over the next 7 days, assuming no widespread rains move through…we should start seeing a bit of a higher temperature response 10 days or so from now.
Again it’s the subtle things.
Oh by the way…check out this tornado that developed with a timelapse from last night in NW Nebraska.
The feature photo today comes from the People of Cowtown…
Have a safe and happy 4th!