Joe's Weather World: Even the cold fronts are puny right now (FRI-1/3)

Weather

A cold front came through yesterday…our winds turned to the north…and yet the temperatures this morning are still 10° above the average lows…and by the end of the day, while 50° is going to be tough…temperatures are going to be well into the 40s…and over the weekend more above average days are coming.

The NWS sent out a tweet saying since the 1st day of winter…the 21st…to now…it’s our 4th warmest stretch of weather in that time period.  So it goes…and I’m starting to get itchy for something to happen…but nothing really is going to happen for awhile it appears. There are signs of something down the road…towards mid-month but it seems lately there are always signs 10 days out of something happening.

For a weather enthusiast…not so great for awhile…for 98% of the other folks…it’s probably a good thing and their certainly not complaining.



  • Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny with some clouds in the afternoon. Highs well into the 40s…some may see the upper 40s. A bit breezier in the afternoon.

Tonight: Variable clouds and a bit windy and finally colder with lows 20-25°. It will feel colder than that.

Tomorrow: Sunny and after a cold start a nice finish with highs close to 45°

Sunday: Milder with highs near 50°



  • Discussion:

The overall theme to forecasting this week is to be aggressive with forecasting temperatures…I have and even I haven’t been aggressive enough.

With that said I remember earlier in the week, Monday I think…when some model data had snow coming in the area this morning…or at least some wintry mix. I jumped on that potential…and well…not so much.

Nothing but sunshine as I type this…

This stuff is complicated sometimes…you think a cold front comes through, like what happened yesterday and it should be colder right? It’s January for goodness sake. A couple of days ago I looked harder at this so called front…and since the average high was 38° I was wondering how that could happen when a bubble of downsloping warm air was coming towards us today.

It was just going to be a matter of clouds or sunshine…and we see how that is going this morning right…

The 9AM surface map is showing this bubble coming into the area…while the temperatures within that bubble aren’t that warm…their not bad for January and as that bubble comes down in the NW flow…it will be coming down some terrain…the surface winds are from the west too…it’s a combination for “mild” air once again to win the day it appears.

Interestingly there is a nice little disturbance helping this process along…and it will be dropping towards the central/eastern MO area overnight…IF that disturbance was dropping more towards central KS towards SE KS…we would get some snow showers tonight (maybe even some accumulations) but it’s going to be too far east of here it appears.

Here is the HRRR model…for timing…21Z is 3PM…0Z is 6PM…03Z is 9PM and 06Z is 12AM…09Z is 3AM

Then overnight we get a rather decent injection of cold air coming down…with some wind too…followed by a quick departure of said cold air tomorrow afternoon. So after a seasonably cold start tomorrow…we moderate in the afternoon back to near 45°. Normally I’d think that would be an aggressive push…but it could happen.

Sunday we still have a bit of warm air left around…especially in the 1st part of the day as a matter of fact some more downsloped warm air will come our way overnight tomorrow into Sunday morning. We just cant get into any true cold air with lasting power right now.

After all of that though..I’m reminded that things can change quickly in the winter…and maybe heading towards mid month something could happen. What we’re missing right now is arctic air getting into the pattern in the US…and perhaps heading towards mid month that could change a bit. That type of regime would help fuel stronger storms with more contrasting air masses…in other words more winter!

Before that though…both models are showing something along the lines of the 10th that may bear watching…won’t get too excited about that prospect though…7 of the 51 ensembles off the EURO are trying to create at least 2″ of snow…which has been a persistent thing lately…we’ll see about that.

OK that’s it for today and for the weekend too…see you again next week! Our feature photo is from Thelma Smith down in Clearwater Beach, FL

Looks wonderful

Joe

 

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