Joe’s Weather World: Fighting clouds…but warmth awaits (THU-2/27)

Weather

The coldest of the air is starting to move away and modify this morning. We tanked to 20° earlier and clouds are on the way to the area today. Rain risks appear small today…there may be a few sprinkles around tomorrow…maybe…then we get to pop into the warmer air mass over the weekend as highs soar well into the 60s.

Cooler weather comes for a couple of days next week before we really warm-up an potentially get a bigger dose of early spring weather later in the week. As a matter of fact with the exception of a couple of speed bumps of cooler weather…the overall “pattern” looks to be rather mild for the 1st 10 days of March…again a few cooler days in there.

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Forecast:

Today: Increasing clouds and seasonable with highs in the upper 40s

Tonight: Variable clouds and not as cold with lows closer to 30°

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy…maybe a few sprinkles around…highs near 50°

This weekend: Windy on Saturday and warmer with highs well into the 60s. More clouds around on Sunday with highs in the mid 60s.

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Discussion:

There really isn’t a lot to write about today…our next weather maker of significance comes long on later Sunday night into Monday with rain chances and cooler air coming into the region.

We’re going to close out meteorological winter on a milder>warm note it appears with temperatures near average and then well above average. The month will end up above average for temperatures and below average for snow.

I don’s see any snow coming of any consequence for the next 10 days…perhaps longer. The snow window is closing slowly but surely. Days are getting longer and longer…the sun angle is getting higher and higher…and while March snowstorms aren’t unheard of…it’s takes a lot more to get some decent amounts. Take a look at the records for total month of March snows…and notice that only two of the top 37 have occurred this century.

If we break those monthly totals down even more to a daily amount…let’s just say 2″ of more of snow…well…not so much.

Data if for KCI

In other words…the snow window is closing.

Let me show you where the snow window though is wide open.

Let’s go to the Great Lakes where the is little to no ice on the waters up there. That’s really been the case all winter long.

All the blue shade in the Lakes represent ice free waters

This next map shows the conditions on today’s date last year…it’s a bit different showing the ice covered areas in gray and the other colors represent the water temperatures.

In a nutshell though…62% ice cover last year and 9% this year.

When cold air goes over the “warmer” Lake waters…lake effect snows are common. This season hasn’t had a lot of really cold air masses so the lake effect phenomena, while never going away…hasn’t been that awful for this winter. The Lakes region has been well above average for temperatures as well this winter.

As a matter of fact…average temperatures up there are running in the Top 5-10 of warmest winters on record.

These are the rankings of warmest winters. 1’s mean warmest on record etc

So no ice + cold air streaming over the water…means lake effect.

The next few days will be a huge lake effect event for upstate NY.

This is just through midday Saturday.

There is a 40″ max in there…

There is an area called the Tug Hill Plateau near Watertown, NY that gets the most almost every year. They’re expecting nearly 4 feet of snow!

So there’s that.

For us…let’s enjoy the warmer days through Sunday.

I think I’ll take a few days off from the blog with nothing noteworthy going on…

Our feature photo comes from Lesa Wardrip‎

Joe

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