Joe’s Weather World: Fleeting rain chances then something different (THU-8/13)

Weather

This has been a somewhat tough to forecast last few days. Isolated showers/storms have been around the area and it seems features that should create rain aren’t really…and ones that shouldn’t are.

So it goes with a tropical air mass I place but that aspect of the weather will be changing later Saturday into Sunday and early next week as some lower dew point air…drier air for August, is coming down towards us.

We may get some rain in the transition on Saturday morning…but overall the rain chances and amounts are really going downhill for the next week or so it appears. So you may need to start the sprinklers again pretty soon.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy with some more sunshine in the afternoon. There may be a few random showers out there but overall the rain will remain west of the region. Highs in the mid 80s. Typically muggy for mid August.

Tonight: Fair skies and muggy with lows near 70°

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and muggy with highs around 87°

The weekend: Maybe some morning showers/storms Saturday then partly cloudy. More comfortable air later in the day and into Sunday; Highs in the mid 80s both days

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Discussion:

I think today will be a short blog…just sort of blah weather out there…there were some strong storms with locally heavy rains out west of here. That seems to be slowly fading as I type this.

Some 1-3″ totals down towards the SW of the region east of Wichita from that overnight activity.

Blowoff clouds will be an issue for a good part of the morning from this activity.

There may be a few other showers or storms this afternoon. Very random and isolated it appears.

Not much else is expected till perhaps Saturday morning as a cold front comes through. On that note…today will likely be the 18th straight day with below average high temperatures. The average high is 88° today…we may get close but not above later this afternoon. We’ve had a couple of average highs in the last week…but no above average highs and no 90s either.

Today will also be the 18th straight day with no 90°+ degree highs…interesting. That 94° summer max temperature is looking better and better.

Especially when you look at this…

I did an analysis of the air mass coming in Sunday into next week compared to what happened earlier in the month when we were near or breaking some record lows. This air mass coming doesn’t appear to be as cool as that one so I don’t want to go too low with the temperatures. As a matter of fact the model data has somewhat backed off on the 70s for highs locally for next Tuesday.

Regardless IF we can have several days of 80-85° highs with lower dew points…that will be a good thing!

Another issue will b the drier weather next week…really for the next 7+ days it appears. The 6-10 day forecast is very dry looking.

The front coming in on Saturday morning will be coming in at a bad time of the day for significant rain. Storms will fire up Friday afternoon northwest of the Metro and try moving SE. As the storms lose their instability and fuel overnight Friday they should weaken as they get closer and break-up.

We’ll see how much is left when they get here Saturday morning…but it may not be a lot to write home about.

One other item…do you know there hasn’t been a tornado watch this season for the KC Metro area…some 120 watches have been issued…and not one for the Metro. The Plains overall were very quiet in most cases. I believe the Wichita NWS has yet to have a tornado in their area of responsibility.

My goodness…look at KS and central and western OK…even the TX Panhandle area. Crickets.

Our feature photo today is from Craig Williams out in Lafayette County the other day

Joe

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