Joe’s Weather World: Furnace to A/Cs…and plenty of rain chances (WED-5/13)

Weather

Good morning…about the only good thing I can say about this morning is that it’s not overly cold but it’s gray and cool for sure. Temperatures never really dropped overnight…readings this morning at KCI were in the upper 40s to around 50° and it’s going to be a struggle for most of the day to get mild…but eventually later this afternoon the warmer air starts to come back thanks to a northward moving warm front.

That front will open the doors to a flood of moisture…warmth…and storm chances through Saturday but the bigger story is the mostly mild to warm weather that will stick around mostly through next week.

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Forecast:

Today: Mist or drizzle at times with some real rain and rumbles possible from KC southwards later this morning into mid afternoon. It won’t be till after that moves through…that the warmer air can return northbound. It won’t move in (the warmer air) till VERY late this afternoon or this evening. It’s possible that the highs for the day won’t be till around sunset. Highs in the mid 60s by then but most of the day may be below 60°

Tonight: Cloudy and mild. More humidity with steady temperatures in the lower 60s. Breezy as well.

Tomorrow: Warmer and humid with a chance of some scattered showers/storms during the day but better chances towards evening associated with a cold front that will be moving through the region. Highs closer to 80° with enough sunshine. Windy too.

Friday: There may be some additional rain chances. Seasonable with highs in the mid 70s. The rain chances are connected to how strong the storms are on Thursday and whether they will alter the environment enough for a drier day. My thought is that there will be at least a few hours of some rain around Friday afternoon.

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Discussion:

Yeah not pretty out there this morning…and some rain is likely…mainly from the Metro southwards today. Here is radar.

We’ll see how well that holds together as it comes eastbound.

Here is the a look at the short range HRRR model…

For timing: 18Z is 1PM…21Z is 4PM…0Z is 7PM and 3Z is 10PM

There shouldn’t be severe weather and I’m not anticipating severe weather chances today in the KC area. This was what I said last night and still feel.

The only risk of stronger storms…would be tonight…and that risk seems more towards far northern MO and northwestern MO. That will be connected to the warm front which should be up there by the wee hours of the morning. Here is the SPC thought for today/tonight.

The warm front that we’re keying on is still way down towards the Red River region towards the OK/TX border area. It won’t come up that quickly today…and will be held south for awhile with the rain moving through SE KS. Once that rain falls apart or moves away…then it should start lurching north quicker and moving up the State Line area very late this afternoon.

Then we get into the warmer and more humid air that you will feel this evening and overnight. Almost a muggy feel.

Tomorrow’s issue is a cold front that will be entering the area later in the day and evening. By then we’ll have warmth…70s+…higher dew points…60s…and more heating leading to stronger instability.

Today all the better instability will be down towards OK…

Tomorrow it’s farther north into KS…and when a cold front comes into that instability…the end result, at least later in the day should be some stronger storms. The next map shows the CAPE forecast. CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy

Those values above are 2000-4000 and that is significant instability. So when the front cuts into that…and the updrafts in the clouds get going…this means that they will be vigorous updrafts. Basically it shows the “buoyancy” of the atmosphere. There’s a lot of buoyancy!

All that CAPE though means little to nothing if the atmosphere is capped. We may be capped for awhile until later in the day. So we’re trying to get the front here…into that instability when the cap weakens enough to allow all the buoyant air to drive up into the atmosphere.

The end result should be strong storms…and potentially severe weather for most of the region. Here is the SPC forecast for tomorrow.

Hail/winds are the main threats tomorrow. There also could be some locally heavy rains…as is typical with storms around here.

Nothing though is set in stone. Later today strong storms will develop towards the southern Plains and from those storms tonight a wave may be created and start moving towards the ENE…that could give us earlier rains tomorrow and mess up the best instability in the afternoon. It’s more or less a wait and see type scenario for tomorrow but the severe risk would be roughly 4-8PM or so for the Metro…and then from about 8-11PM towards the southeast of KC.

More rain chances FRI and SAT. Most of Friday won’t be terrible although SAT may see renewed convection in the aftenoon/evening.

Right now Sunday looks to be good…and then it gets warmer next week with 80-85° day possible with dew points that will make things very much feel like summer every so often…especially after Tuesday. Storm risks look low till maybe later next week.

The feature photo comes from Sherry Barnes from the big storms last week.

Joe

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