Joe’s Weather World: Good temperature trends and more rain chances (WED-3/25)

Weather

Just a quick note…I’ll be taking a few days off tomorrow into Monday…not going anywhere…not really doing anything…but I need to take them rather than lose them. I may blog…I may not…so stay tuned.

Our weather today is starting like the last few days with lots of clouds and some fog. Both should gradually improve into the afternoon…and once we get sunshine and breezier conditions…we should warm up quickly.

The trick to the forecast is the progress of a cold front that will sag into the area and stall out. Some sort of weak low pressure area will travel along the front…so tomorrow may still be mild overall before we cool off a few degrees on Friday.

The rain threat will remain with the transitions…although pinning down the specifics is tied to the fronts location…and since some rain will influence the fronts location…we sort of get into a this loop of forecasting headaches which in turn affect the day to day temperatures for the next 48 hour or so.

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Forecast:

Today: Clouds/fog diminishing and skies should brighten up in the afternoon. You’ll know the warmup is coming when the breezes pick up. Highs today well into the 60s

Tonight: Variable clouds with mild temperatures and lows in the 50° range.

Thursday: There may be a bit of mist around in the morning…then partly cloudy and remaining mild with highs in the 60s as a surface storm passes nearby.

Friday: Early morning rain/storm threats…especially from KC southwards. Cooler overall with highs in the 50s

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Discussion:

So we start the day once again with gray skies and murky conditions.

The hope is that the increasing March sun angle combined by more wind in the couple of thousand foot deep layer of moist air trapped here at the surface will work together to punch breaks in the clouds.

Yesterday when skies broke up we popped into the mid>upper 50s in spots where there were breaks…with more breaks and more wind…the thought is that we will get warmer today.

A front moving into the region tonight will stall out a a weak surface low pressure area comes up from the southwest. It may pass very close to the KC area…meaning cooler air north and warmer air south. As I mentioned yesterday we will be on the dividing line of this air mass battle tomorrow.

You can see the effects from a temperature standpoint…

4PM temperature forecast off the NAM model for Thursday

Upper 40s in NW MO and low 70s in Cass Co…one of those days.

and we could be warmer in the Metro as a storm comes towards the area IF the storm stays south of I-70…we’re cooler…if north…we’re warmer.

1PM surface wind flow map…showing the surface low near Atchison Co in NE KS

So tomorrow is a big potential temperature bust day

As the surface low passes through…the winds will shift for most of the area towards the north and northeast so that by Friday morning we have a broad area of NNE winds in the region allowing the cooler air from the north to seep into the region.

7AM Surface map for Friday

That front down towards the I-44 corridor will then slowly come back up to the north I think…as a new surface storm moves through the Plain…depending on where that surface storm goes…will determine how far north the warm front moves…so it’s very possible we can go back into the warm air on Saturday before a cold front moves through

So between all of these changes…there is somewhat of a risk of severe storms…note widespread locally but for parts of the region…this forecast will likely change…this is for Friday into early Saturday morning.

This means the potential of some scattered storms Friday morning at some point…and then perhaps on Saturday as the front comes through…exactly where though is a tough forecast right now. Once the front moves through though…at some point on Saturday, perhaps later in the afternoon we’ll see falling temperatures into the evening.

So overall the weekend looks a lot better than the last couple of weekends.

It appears as well that we’ll be in pretty good shape from a temperature standpoint heading into the early part of April as well.

The feature photo is a precious one…taken by Laura Linn-Teacher. Love it!

Joe

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